Despite constant chatter about rising oil prices on earnings calls, most S&P 500 companies say the impact on their bottom lines remains limited for now.
The word “oil” came up on 149 earnings calls held by S&P 500 companies between March 15 and June 5, according to a FactSet analysis of call transcripts.
That figure is the highest since the first quarter of 2020, when the COVID pandemic sparked widespread concern about a massive oil surplus disrupting global markets.
The Q1 2026 number represents a 176% jump from Q4 2025, when “oil” was cited on only 54 earnings calls between December 15 and March 14.
The Q1 2026 figure also sits well above the trailing five-year average of 66 mentions, underscoring how dramatically the conversation around oil has intensified.
“We’re seeing the highest percentages of S&P 500 earnings calls citing the terms ‘Middle East’ and ‘oil’ going back at least five years, to 2021,” said John Butters, VP and senior earnings analyst at FactSet.
The surge in mentions is tied directly to the ongoing Iran war, which has rattled energy markets and kept oil prices elevated and volatile heading into the summer.
Wall Street has worried that higher fuel costs could weigh on consumer demand and push prices higher across industries that depend heavily on oil as a key input.
Of the 149 companies that mentioned oil on their Q1 earnings calls, 86 went on to provide a full-year earnings-per-share outlook, according to the FactSet report.
Only 8% of those companies, representing 7 out of 86, actually cited oil prices as a reason for lowering or not updating their annual EPS guidance.
Carnival CFO David Bernstein addressed the uncertainty directly on his company’s earnings call, saying, “Given the recent spike and volatility in fuel prices, we believe it is reasonable to assume some moderation over the balance of the year, rather than base our guidance on current elevated spot prices.”
United Airlines, which lowered its full-year outlook in April, said it was trying to offer forecasts that “encompass multiple scenarios,” as oil and gas prices remain volatile amid negotiations to end the fighting in the Middle East.
The energy-driven volatility has been enough to push a key U.S. inflation measure to its worst level in three years, roughly in line with economist expectations.
Yet despite elevated oil prices and persistent inflation concerns, the U.S. stock market has surged to record highs, driven by strong corporate earnings across multiple sectors.
S&P 500 companies have been routinely topping analyst expectations for Q1 2026, and investor confidence has remained resilient as profits continue to outperform even in a challenging macro environment.
