SpaceX is moving forward with a landmark IPO, planning to raise roughly $75 billion at $135 per share, implying a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion.
Trading is expected to begin June 12, positioning the offering as one of the most consequential market events in recent memory.
At that valuation, investors are not buying an undiscovered mid-cap with room to grow, but a company already priced like a fully matured mega-cap.
Research firm Morningstar pegs the company’s fair value closer to $780 billion, representing a discount of roughly 50% to the IPO price.
SpaceX lost almost $5 billion in 2025, and losses grew by another $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone.
Revenue rose 33% to $18.7 billion, but the company’s AI division lost $6.4 billion last year while generating just $3.2 billion in revenue.
In the first quarter of 2026, the AI division alone posted $2.47 billion in losses against $818 million in revenue, making it the single largest drag on the business.
SpaceX itself admits in its SEC filing that some of its plans rely on technology that does not yet exist, a disclosure that should give investors pause.
PitchBook analyst Franco Granda flagged missing details in the prospectus on subscriber churn, rocket unit economics, and how much of the AI compute capacity is actually being utilized.
The offering uses a dual-class share structure that concentrates voting power with Elon Musk and insiders, leaving public shareholders with little meaningful ability to challenge his decisions.
Governance provisions in the filing preserve Musk’s effective control over the board while he continues to serve as both chief executive and chairman.
University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter’s study of more than 9,200 IPOs found that firms with more than $1 billion in sales before listing posted average three-year returns of -2.1% versus the broader market.
Tech deals priced above 40 times sales fared even worse, with 12 of 14 such transactions trailing the market over a three-year window.
Only about 4% of shares will trade publicly at first, with 96% locked up, creating conditions where prices can swing sharply in both directions on thin volume.
Retail allocation in the deal runs as high as 30%, well above the typical sub-10% level, pointing to heavy participation from individual investors who tend to amplify price moves.
BNP Paribas is warning clients that the SpaceX IPO could trigger a wave of selling in the semiconductor stocks that have driven recent market gains.
Retail buyers will need to raise cash to fund their IPO purchases, and their existing holdings are heavily concentrated in chips and leveraged NASDAQ products.
Starlink remains the company’s only clearly profitable segment, while launch operations run at a loss and the AI division continues consuming cash at an accelerating pace.
The combination of an untested AI business, limited disclosures, concentrated control, and a stretched valuation makes this one of the most debated offerings the market has seen in years.
