At least three Iranian tankers carrying nearly five million barrels of crude oil have exited the U.S. Navy blockade in the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in two months.
The breakthrough comes as shipowners cautiously reposition their fleets ahead of a formal U.S.-Iran deal signing scheduled for Friday in Geneva.
Two supertankers named Diona and Hero 2, both owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company and operating under U.S. sanctions, made it through the blockade perimeter carrying a combined 3.8 million barrels of crude oil.
A third Iran-linked tanker carrying one million barrels of Iranian crude exited the blockade line on Wednesday, according to shipping data provided by Kpler.
“Their apparent departure from the blockade suggests that other Iranian-trading tankers are also preparing to resume trading,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.
The U.S. and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Monday to end the nearly four-month war, with a formal signing ceremony planned for Friday in Geneva.
Washington would allow Tehran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel once the agreement is signed, in exchange for Iran’s commitment to curb its nuclear program, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flowed before the war, has been effectively shut for the entire duration of the conflict.
The prospect of a reopening prompted some shipowners, battered by months of surging freight costs and war-risk insurance premiums, to begin repositioning vessels toward Gulf ports in anticipation of restocking demand.
“The maritime sector is treating the news with something closer to wary disbelief than celebration,” said Lloyd’s List Intelligence, reflecting the broader mood across global shipping markets.
Insurers are holding firm on high war-risk premiums and demanding “solid evidence” that the waterway will remain safe before adjusting their pricing, Lloyd’s analysts said.
“While a pause in hostilities will free stranded mariners and boost tanker and bulk markets, the sector sees this as a fragile reprieve rather than a return to normality,” the analysts said in a client note on Tuesday.
Some very large crude carrier owners are looking to gain a “first-mover advantage” by positioning tankers toward the Middle East Gulf, while others are choosing to hold back, according to Lloyd’s.
Dozens of VLCCs are sailing from the South China Sea and across the Indian Ocean toward United Arab Emirates ports, where at least 30 ships were already at anchor, according to Windward.
The U.S. Navy has reminded the industry that “nothing has changed and will not until the agreement is signed,” said Tim Wilkins, managing director of Intertanko, an association of independent tankers.
Kpler estimated 118 laden tankers could exit the region within 15 days after the deal is signed, though the surge of departing ships is expected to be a one-time event rather than a durable recovery of traffic.
“Most shipowners appear to be cautiously awaiting more details before planning new transits of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO.
“They will seek reassurance that transits are not only permitted but also safe before sending their ships through the strait,” Rasmussen added, capturing the deep uncertainty that continues to define the sector’s outlook.
