The June nonfarm payrolls report, due Thursday, may come in stronger than Wall Street expects, with the FIFA World Cup providing a significant lift to hiring numbers.
Goldman Sachs economists say private data from Homebase, a small business payroll firm, points to a World Cup-related boost of roughly 40,000 jobs last month.
The Dow Jones consensus from surveyed economists projects nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000 in June, a step down from the solid 172,000 gain recorded in May.
Goldman, however, is forecasting a more optimistic total of 140,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added, driven in part by World Cup-related hiring activity across multiple sectors.
Homebase data shows that the 11 World Cup hosting cities posted a year-over-year hiring decline of just 1.2%, while non-hosting cities experienced a steeper drop of 3.5%.
Hospitality hiring was a notable bright spot in the Homebase figures, rising 9.5% in June, a result Goldman attributed at least partly to World Cup-related economic activity.
“Our historical analysis suggests that the World Cup could boost payroll growth by 40k in June, and that its impact should be concentrated in the leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and trade and transportation sectors,” Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels said in a note.
Even at Goldman’s forecast of 140,000, the June figure would still fall short of May’s pace but represent a sharp improvement over the 20,000 jobs lost in June 2025.
Goldman also noted that initial June payroll readings have historically carried an upward bias, with the first of three estimates revised lower in each of the past four years.
That pattern suggests the initial Thursday report could land above the consensus even before any future revisions are applied to the final tally.
The World Cup, hosted across multiple American cities in 2026, has generated widespread economic activity in sectors ranging from travel and lodging to food service and transportation.
The broader labor market continues to face scrutiny as investors and policymakers watch for signals about the pace of economic growth heading into the second half of the year.
