ASML Holding is set to report its second-quarter 2026 results before European markets open on Wednesday, July 15, kicking off a closely watched earnings season.
The Dutch semiconductor equipment maker is the world’s sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, the machines essential for producing the most advanced AI chips.
Investors across the semiconductor space are treating ASML’s quarterly results as the most important data point of the earnings season so far.
Wall Street consensus expects total net sales to land between 8.4 billion euros and 9.0 billion euros, a range ASML itself guided in April.
Analysts also anticipate a gross margin of roughly 51% to 52% and earnings per share near $7.98, representing approximately 75% growth over the same quarter a year earlier.
Those headline figures, however solid, are largely considered locked in, shifting investor focus to a harder and more consequential question.
The central debate is whether AI-related spending is strong enough to support a further upgrade to ASML’s full-year outlook so soon after the last revision.
Investors are navigating that uncertainty without one of their traditional signals, as ASML no longer discloses quarterly net bookings figures to the market.
Applied Materials recently reported record fiscal second-quarter revenue of $7.91 billion, up 11% year on year, and now expects its semiconductor-equipment business to grow more than 30% in calendar 2026.
Applied Materials raised that forecast from “over 20%” back in February, citing accelerating AI-driven demand across logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging segments.
One day after ASML reports, TSMC is scheduled to release results on July 16, and as one of ASML’s largest advanced-node customers, its capital expenditure commentary will directly test ASML’s second-half assumptions.
TSMC has guided second-quarter revenue to between $39.0 billion and $40.2 billion at a gross margin of 65.5% to 67.5%, with full-year dollar revenue growth projected above 30%.
ASML shares have surged 65.46% year-to-date in 2026 and climbed 127% over the past 52 weeks, reflecting intense investor appetite for AI infrastructure exposure.
Despite strong earnings growth expectations, historical post-earnings price action for ASML stock has been underwhelming, tempering near-term enthusiasm among traders.
The current valuation, sitting at 58 times trailing and 48.6 times forward price-to-earnings, leaves limited room for further multiple expansion or meaningful upside surprises heading into the report.
