The U.S. Department of Agriculture revised its beef export sales figures dramatically downward, triggering serious questions about the agency’s data integrity following significant staffing losses.
Just one week before the correction, the USDA reported net U.S. beef export sales for the week ending June 25 had reached 126,062 metric tons, representing a nearly 500% jump from the prior week.
That figure was also reported as the highest weekly beef export total of 2026, drawing immediate attention from traders, analysts, and cattle producers across the country.
A revised report released Thursday reduced that number to just 12,064 metric tons, representing a correction of more than 90% from the originally published figure.
Among the suspicious original figures were reported sales of 38,434 metric tons of U.S. beef to Chile and 32,274 metric tons to Italy, neither of which is typically a major destination for American beef exports.
Thursday’s revision reduced those totals to 367 metric tons for Chile and 350 metric tons for Italy, while export sales to 14 other countries were also revised downward.
A USDA spokesperson offered this explanation: “The July 2 beef export data was an isolated processing issue due to a combination of data accumulating over several months and exporters reporting late.”
The agency had actually defended the original figures before reversing course, stating it had confirmed accuracy directly with an exporter, saying “the ESR team confirmed that the quantities are correct and were reported as MTs.”
Mike Castle, senior commodities economist for consultancy StoneX, pointed to a new export sales reporting system launched this spring as a likely contributing factor to the error.
“It wouldn’t be a shock to see some minor corrections following their switch to the new reporting system in March, but nowhere near this volume,” Castle said.
Austin Schroeder, a commodity analyst at Brugler Marketing & Management, said the USDA probably should have caught the error before publication and may have overlooked it.
Schroeder also noted, “We’re priced out of the world market to a certain extent,” adding, “It wouldn’t make a lot of sense for that big of an export number.”
The mistake comes amid sweeping staffing reductions across the USDA, with more than 24,000 employees having left the department since early 2025, according to U.S. Office of Personnel Management data.
Those departures have reduced the agency’s total workforce by nearly 27%, while the National Agricultural Statistics Service has seen its staffing decline by approximately 37%.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, which directly oversees export sales reporting, lost about 21% of its employees in the first half of last year alone, according to government data.
Trust in USDA reports has eroded among traders, analysts, and farmers after the agency significantly underestimated corn acres last year and delayed a quarterly agricultural trade report.
The agency also excluded findings that pointed to tariffs as a reason for a forecasted increase in the agricultural trade deficit, a decision analysts said raised questions about its objectivity.
The revision arrives at a particularly sensitive moment, as the U.S. cattle industry is navigating some of its tightest supplies in decades alongside record-high beef prices and strong consumer demand.
Producers, exporters, and traders rely heavily on USDA export reports to make critical business decisions, making accurate and timely data more important than ever in the current market environment.
