The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in early 2026 triggered what the IEA immediately described as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
The strait’s effective shutdown cut off approximately 15 million barrels per day of crude oil, a volume that dwarfs every previous disruption in modern energy history.
To put the scale in context, the Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 15% of global crude supply, more than three times the volume affected by the 1990 Kuwait invasion and nearly double the 1973 Arab embargo.
Despite that historic magnitude, Brent crude moved from $72 to $119 per barrel, a roughly 65% increase that is smaller than both the 1973 quadrupling and the 1990 doubling in price.
After an initial spike when the US launched strikes on Iran in late February, crude prices settled into a range of $90 to $100 per barrel, well below the levels many analysts had feared.
Several intersecting forces combined to cushion the blow and prevent a more severe price spiral in global energy markets.
China, the world’s largest oil importer, delivered one of the biggest surprises, slashing inbound shipments by almost 40% in May compared to last year’s average.
That reduction alone was large enough to offset anywhere between a third and a fifth of the barrels lost to the disruption caused by the war.
The United States emerged as the world’s most important swing supplier, with American crude and fuel exports in May running more than 2 million barrels a day above last year’s full-year average.
Governments around the globe coordinated a historic release of strategic petroleum reserves, while Gulf producers worked to reroute shipments through alternative export terminals and passages.
Some tankers continued moving cargoes through the strait itself despite the considerable risks, using increasingly opaque methods to navigate around military threats in the region.
The Trump administration also issued sanctions waivers for some sanctioned Russian oil, making it easier for Indian processors to sharply boost their purchases from Moscow.
Russian crude flows to India averaged approximately 1.76 million barrels a day in May, representing a 63% increase compared to the February baseline before the conflict began.
JPMorgan’s Natasha Kaneva captured the broader dynamic clearly, noting that “the market repeatedly adjusted in ways that kept prices from moving materially higher.”
The cumulative effect of demand destruction, supply rerouting, reserve releases, and diplomatic maneuvering has so far prevented the kind of catastrophic price shock that historical precedents would have predicted.
