An insider has placed a bet on vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returning to “normal” levels before the end of August.
They placed the bet on Saturday evening, just three hours before Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei announced they had made “progress” toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz after holding talks with Oman. The market edged slightly higher following this announcement.
The insider used a new wallet (nicknamed “Satoshi2006”) to place the bet on Polymarket, and existing wallets linked to them have won almost a dozen successive Polymarket bets over the last five months, with zero losses.
On this specific market, titled “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?”, holders of “Yes” shares will win if the seven-day moving average of ship crossings in the Strait of Hormuz reaches 60 or higher at any point before the end of August.
The insider stands to make a return of approximately 650% if vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returns to “normal” levels before the end of next month.
Polymarket is banned in many jurisdictions, but as only an email address is required to make an account, many users circumvent these restrictions by using a VPN.
Earlier this month, President Donald Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator was placed on unpaid administrative leave after becoming the subject of a federal insider trading investigation tied to prediction market platform Kalshi.
Gabriel Perez, who has worked alongside Trump since the 2016 presidential campaign, is accused of using advance knowledge of the president’s prepared speeches to place profitable bets on so-called “mention markets,” where users wager on whether specific words or phrases will appear during public addresses.
According to reports, Kalshi’s internal surveillance systems detected unusual trading patterns linked to Perez’s account. Unlike Kalshi, Polymarket allows users to place bets while remaining anonymous, as no ID verification is required to sign up.
Investigators believe Perez earned more than $90,000—and potentially over $100,000—from trades placed ahead of more than a dozen speeches, including major events such as the State of the Union address. The funds have reportedly been frozen while the investigation continues.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that Perez had been placed on unpaid leave, describing the allegations as “deeply unfortunate” and “a disgrace.” She added that President Trump was aware of the situation and supported the decision to remove Perez from his duties while regulators conduct their investigation.
Perez is reportedly cooperating with authorities, and no criminal charges have been announced at this stage.
The case has drawn renewed attention to the risks of insider trading on prediction markets, particularly where individuals have access to confidential, market-moving information before it becomes public. In response, Kalshi said it has strengthened its compliance procedures, including enhanced surveillance and reporting measures designed to identify and prevent the misuse of non-public information.
