AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2026 earnings on August 10, after market close, with investors watching closely.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues stands at $34.13 million, with an expected loss of 28 cents per share for the quarter.
Over the past 60 days, the earnings estimate for ASTS for fiscal 2026 has increased by 1.43%, while another estimate period has declined by 10.53%.
The company’s recent earnings surprise history is notably weak, with a negative four-quarter average earnings surprise of 124.3%, including a negative surprise of 186.96% in the last reported quarter.
Zacks’ proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for ASTS this time, as the company currently carries an Earnings ESP of -1.56% with a Zacks Rank of 3.
During the second quarter, ASTS successfully launched BlueBird satellites 8, 9, and 10 aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket into low Earth orbit, a significant operational milestone.
Those new satellites feature approximately 2,400-square-foot communications arrays and are expected to nearly double peak data speeds compared to the initial Block 1 BlueBird satellites.
Following that launch, ASTS announced that BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13 are targeted for launch during the first half of August, underscoring steady constellation expansion.
The company also secured approval from the U.S. Federal Communications Commission to commercially offer its SpaceMobile Service across the United States, a major step toward full commercialization.
That FCC authorization allows ASTS to operate a constellation of up to 248 satellites delivering direct-to-device cellular broadband using premium low-band spectrum in partnership with AT&T and Verizon.
AST SpaceMobile continues to target roughly 45 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026, with launches expected approximately every one to two months throughout the year.
The company has established agreements covering nearly 60 mobile network operators representing more than three billion subscribers, including AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, Bell Canada, and TELUS.
Beyond telecom partnerships, ASTS secured additional U.S. government awards during the first quarter, with management expecting government programs to contribute to revenue growth throughout 2026.
Competition in the direct-to-device satellite space is intensifying, with Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) expanding its Starlink network through a collaboration with T-Mobile.
Globalstar (GSAT) also represents a competitive threat, with the company standing to benefit from Amazon’s planned acquisition, further pressuring AST SpaceMobile’s market position.
Over the past year, ASTS has gained 20.8%, trailing the industry’s growth of 28.2%, while GSAT has surged 237.1% and SPCX has declined 15.1% since its IPO.
From a valuation standpoint, ASTS trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 51.12 forward sales, significantly above the industry average of 4.71, reflecting a substantial premium.
Building a global direct-to-device satellite network requires substantial capital investment across satellite manufacturing, launches, gateway infrastructure, and spectrum integration, keeping execution risk elevated.
While recent launches have been successful, an issue during the BlueBird 7 launch serves as a reminder that operational risks remain a meaningful concern for investors.
With large-scale consumer adoption, pricing models, carrier monetization, and long-term economics still unproven, new investors in ASTS may be better served by approaching the stock with caution ahead of earnings.
