New polling from Bowling Green State University shows Ohio’s gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races are extremely close heading into the November election.
The BGSU survey found Democratic candidates in both races hold 3-point leads over their Republican opponents among likely Ohio voters.
Despite those slim leads, respondents believe Republicans are more likely to ultimately win both contests when the votes are counted.
In the gubernatorial race, 48 percent of likely voters backed Democratic nominee Amy Acton, while 45 percent supported Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy.
Even with Acton’s narrow lead in the horse race numbers, 62 percent of those polled said they believe Ramaswamy will win the November contest.
The Senate race tells a similar story, with incumbent Sen. Jon Husted trailing Democratic challenger and former Sen. Sherrod Brown by three points.
Despite that deficit, 53 percent of respondents said they believe the Republican Husted will ultimately defeat Brown in the midterm election.
The BGSU results closely mirror findings from a June AARP survey, which also showed GOP candidates narrowly trailing their Democratic opponents in both races.
Robert Alexander, a BGSU political science professor, said the results suggest Ohio voters are “becoming increasingly uneasy” about the president and the direction of the country and economy.
Alexander noted that midterm dynamics could be shifting the competitive landscape in a state that has long leaned Republican in statewide contests.
“Given that midterm elections are largely about the president’s approval, Democrats are poised to be competitive in a state Republicans have dominated electorally for two decades,” Alexander said in a statement.
The poll surveyed 1,000 likely Ohio voters between September 1 and 10, carrying a margin of error of approximately 4 percentage points.
