SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock is sinking 5% to $112.59, leaving the rocket maker 17% below its $135 June IPO price as markets brace for a pivotal evening launch.
The selloff arrives just hours before Starship attempts its 13th test flight, a launch that could determine whether SpaceX’s costly pivot away from Falcon 9 ultimately pays off for investors.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) is falling harder than its peers, dropping 7% to $65.27, while AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) slips 4% to $56.94 on a day with no company-specific catalysts for either name.
The declines in Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile look more like a sympathy trade tied to SpaceX’s own troubles than any direct verdict on either company’s business outlook.
SpaceX has reportedly stopped taking new Falcon 9 bookings for dedicated satellite launches beyond 2028 and is no longer accepting reservations for its Falcon 9 rideshare program, adding pressure to the transition narrative.
The company has also reportedly halted production of some non-reusable Falcon hardware, including the upper stage that carries cargo, while Falcon 9 continues to support certain NASA and U.S. Department of Defense missions.
Tonight marks Starship’s third launch attempt in nine days, following a July 16 engine abort and a weather scrub last Thursday, with the window opening at 6:45 p.m. EDT at Starbase, Texas.
The flight will test whether SpaceX’s Super Heavy booster can complete a clean launch, stage separation, and a controlled return to an offshore landing point in the Gulf of Mexico.
Starship itself needs to deploy 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites and complete a controlled descent to a splashdown in the Indian Ocean, with several satellites carrying cameras to scan the heat shield during reentry.
Traders on Polymarket price an 81% chance of a successful launch tonight and a 72% chance of a controlled splashdown for Starship, odds that suggest confidence but hardly a certainty.
Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale stated that “Starship becoming operational is the critical path to the SpaceX investment thesis,” putting tonight’s test squarely at the center of the bull case.
AST SpaceMobile raised $1.15 billion through convertible notes to fund growth and secure launch capacity, a move that underscores how dependent the company remains on SpaceX for getting its satellites into orbit.
SpaceX has launched most of AST SpaceMobile’s satellite fleet and is expected to carry its next batch, even though SpaceX’s own Starlink network competes with AST SpaceMobile in direct-to-cell service.
Rocket Lab stock could ultimately benefit from tighter Falcon 9 availability, since its own reusable Neutron rocket recently completed a key engine test and could attract customers if Starship faces further delays.
AST SpaceMobile stock is essentially flat over the past year, up just 0.4%, while Rocket Lab stock remains up 42% over that same period even after Friday’s sharp decline.
For investors seeking broader exposure, the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ: UFO) is down just 1.5% to $43.05 today, a milder decline that highlights the benefit of diversification across the space sector.
SpaceX stock carries the most direct risk heading into tonight’s launch, given its exposure to the test outcome, an approaching August 6 share lock-up expiration, and short interest that has reportedly grown to 32%.
Investors may also want to monitor how SpaceX stock behaves heading into its August 4 earnings call, which follows closely behind the high-stakes test flight result.
