SpaceX (SPCX) posted one of its strongest single-day gains since going public, defying expectations that a massive insider share unlock would pressure the stock lower.
The stock was on pace for its largest percent increase since June 15, SpaceX’s first full day as a public company, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Shares closed up 6.1% on Thursday, surprising investors who had braced for selling pressure as 911.5 million shares became eligible to trade for the first time.
That unlock represented roughly 43% more than the 638.9 million shares the company floated during its initial public offering earlier this year.
The newly eligible shares more than doubled SpaceX’s public float, lifting the freely tradable portion of the company to 11.8% of shares outstanding, up from just 4.9%.
The unlock arrived at a difficult moment, with the stock still trading below its IPO price following a sharp post-earnings sell-off that had rattled investor confidence in recent weeks.
JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth offered one explanation for the resilience, writing that “there has already been significant pre-positioning ahead of this first expiration, the largest of many over the next several months.”
Mizuho’s Brett Linzey reinforced that view, noting that “shares becoming eligible for sale does not mean the full tranche will be offered into the market.”
Bank of America’s Ron Epstein framed the unlock as a technical event rather than a fundamental judgment on the company, saying “I would imagine as we start working through the lockup, it’ll take off some sort of technical pressure from the stock.”
SpaceX took an unusual approach to its lockup structure, spreading insider share releases across nine separate tranches over several months rather than using a single fixed expiration date common in most IPOs.
Thursday’s release was the first and largest of those tranches, covering shares that insiders were permitted to sell up to the first 20% of their eligible holdings.
The company had also built in an early-release provision allowing an additional 10% of shares to be sold if the stock traded at least 30% above its IPO price during five of 10 consecutive trading days before its first earnings release, but that threshold was never reached.
Chief Executive Elon Musk’s approximately 6.4 billion shares remain fully locked until June 12, 2027, a period of 366 days from the IPO date, with no early-release provisions attached to his holdings.
With the largest single unlock now behind it, attention will shift to how subsequent tranches are absorbed by the market over the coming months.
