Some American households will pay dramatically more to heat their homes this winter, while others may see modest savings, according to a new federal government report.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its Winter Fuels Outlook this week, projecting heating costs across four major fuel types and accounting for anticipated temperatures nationwide.
The report finds that households using natural gas or propane will likely benefit from lower energy expenditures this winter, driven primarily by reduced fuel costs entering the season.
Those relying on electricity or heating oil, however, face a less favorable picture as prices climb heading into the colder months.
Natural gas customers could spend roughly 9% less than they did last year, making it the largest cost reduction across any single fuel type tracked in the outlook.
Propane users may also see relief, with the EIA projecting approximately a 3% decline in heating costs compared to the previous winter season.
Electricity users are projected to face a 4% cost increase, with the West expected to see the sharpest regional rise at 9% above last winter’s spending levels.
Households that heat with oil face the steepest increases, with the EIA projecting home heating oil prices will average $5.26 a gallon, up 34% from last winter.
The average household using heating oil is projected to spend $2,115 between November and March, representing roughly a 21% increase over last year, within an uncertainty range of about 15% to 35%.
Heating oil customers are concentrated mostly in the Northeast, making up about 3% of U.S. households, and that region is expected to feel the most significant financial pressure this winter.
“Relatively high natural gas inventories entering the winter season provide a cushion for heating demand, while households that rely on heating oil face higher prices because distillate markets remain tight,” EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has identified a strong El Niño pattern this winter, which could lead to large temperature variations from current forecasts.
National average temperatures are expected to be similar to last winter overall, but the Northeast is forecast to be warmer and the West considerably colder than the prior year.
Temperatures in the Midwest and South are assumed to remain similar to last year, meaning those regions may experience more moderate shifts in their overall heating expenditures.
Natural gas homes are expected to spend an average of $640 this winter, while propane households are forecast to average $1,246 in heating costs through March.
The EIA also expects oil production and exports out of the Middle East to gradually increase, with facilitated transits through the Strait of Hormuz and through alternative shipping routes.
