Berenberg analyst Michael Filatov is making the case that SpaceX’s (SPCX) growing mobile ambitions could unexpectedly strengthen AST SpaceMobile’s (ASTS) position in the market.
Filatov maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on ASTS following Grain Management’s agreement to sell its nationwide spectrum portfolio to SpaceX, subject to Federal Communications Commission approval.
The deal involves up to 14 MHz of paired spectrum in the 800 MHz band, giving SpaceX access to low-band frequencies designed to close a key technical gap for its Starlink Mobile ambitions.
SpaceX described the move as a step toward building the world’s “most advanced” mobile network, saying the low-band spectrum would complement its existing 2 GHz mid-band holdings.
The company said the new frequencies would provide a coverage layer capable of improving connectivity through obstacles such as walls, addressing one of satellite connectivity’s persistent limitations.
SpaceX also noted that most existing mobile devices already support the band, meaning Starlink Mobile could deliver connectivity without requiring users to replace their phones.
SpaceX said its goal is to combine its satellite constellation with a terrestrial network into a single architecture providing connectivity “indoors, outdoors, in cellular dead zones, and everywhere in between.”
According to Filatov, SpaceX’s decision to build out its own network could make AST SpaceMobile “more strategically relevant” rather than simply increasing competitive pressure on the smaller satellite company.
He cited SpaceX positioning itself as a mobile carrier rather than simply a satellite connectivity provider as the reason for his optimism around AST SpaceMobile going forward.
That repositioning could leave ASTS with a valuable market niche, partnering with existing telecom operators rather than competing directly against them, Filatov argued.
The analyst noted that AST SpaceMobile is currently the only device-to-device operator whose technology is designed to deliver broadband connectivity to existing smartphones while maintaining a carrier-partnership model.
Filatov therefore sees AST SpaceMobile as “the natural satellite partner for operators,” a distinction that could grow more significant as SpaceX leans further into becoming a direct carrier.
SpaceX received additional regulatory momentum this week when the FCC approved its Gen2 Starlink constellation application, authorizing the launch of 15,000 satellites optimized for 2 GHz spectrum globally.
SpaceX said its V2 Starlink Mobile satellites will deliver more than 100 times the bandwidth of its current generation and provide high-speed connectivity directly to unmodified devices.
The FCC also authorized the full range of backhaul bands used by SpaceX’s V3 broadband satellites, allowing them to operate within Starlink’s existing gateway network infrastructure.
Despite the bullish analyst take, ASTS stock is down 30% year-to-date, while SPCX is up 8% over the same period, reflecting the gap in investor confidence between the two companies.
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around AST SpaceMobile trended in the ‘bullish’ territory, suggesting some investors see the current price as an entry opportunity amid the broader strategic shift.
