AST SpaceMobile may be losing its window to replicate Rocket Lab’s deal-making success, according to satellite communications consultant Tim Farrar.
Farrar issued the warning on X, pointing to Rocket Lab’s use of elevated equity to acquire other businesses before its stock momentum cooled.
“RocketLab used its equity to acquire other businesses while its stock was riding high. Now Iridium will generate cash for years to come. AST didn’t and it might soon be too late to try…” Farrar said.
When pressed on what AST should have acquired, Farrar suggested Firefly as a realistic smaller target in the launch space.
“In a smallish deal probably a launch company (e.g. Firefly), but a more ambitious deal would be buying a satellite operator like RocketLab did,” Farrar said.
Rocket Lab agreed in June to acquire Iridium in a transaction implying $8 billion in enterprise value, offering $27 in cash plus RKLB shares at a notional value of $54 per Iridium share at announcement.
The two companies are targeting a mid-2027 close on that deal, giving Rocket Lab access to stable cash flows from aviation, maritime, and safety-related services.
Farrar had previously identified AST as the most plausible candidate for the unnamed “Party B” in Iridium’s sale process, a bidder that entered due diligence but withdrew without submitting an offer.
AST had signaled its own interest in launch-related deals through its July announcement of a proposed $1 billion convertible notes offering, citing potential acquisitions to reduce reliance on third-party launch providers.
Farrar said at the time, “The ASTS press release makes it pretty clear they now intend to buy/invest in a launch provider,” and deal speculation resurfaced again after AST adopted an executive change-of-control severance policy.
On spectrum strategy, Farrar said “global consolidation of the L-band with Viasat/Inmarsat would be optimal but is probably no longer affordable,” while also criticizing AST’s earlier pursuit of Sky and Space Global’s S-band licenses as insufficiently ambitious.
SpaceX recently agreed to acquire Grain Management’s nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio, subject to FCC approval, while AST has pursued up to 45 MHz of lower-midband spectrum through Ligado and holds international priority rights covering 60 MHz of S-band spectrum.
Farrar questioned why AST’s update on BlueBirds 14-16 arriving at Cape Canaveral did not include a firm launch date, raising broader concerns about the company’s deployment timeline.
Assessing remaining launch capacity, Farrar stated, “If it truly is 8 NG and 2 F9 left, then that would be enough to get to 60 satellites (sometime in 2028 as I’ve been saying for months).”
He also raised pointed questions about future midband launches, asking, “But that’s just a low band system with a tiny amount of spectrum. What do they plan to use for midband launches?” and adding that “only 10 more are contracted.”
Piper Sandler downgraded ASTS to Neutral from Overweight and cut its price target to $54 from $98, citing concerns about the company’s 2026-2027 launch schedule.
ASTS shares are down 13% this week, putting them on track for a third straight weekly loss, while RKLB has slid 19% over the same period for a second consecutive week in the red.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was flagged as extremely bearish for RKLB and neutral for ASTS, with both tickers recording high message volume among traders.
ASTS stock has declined 39% year-to-date, while RKLB has fallen 21% over the same period, reflecting broader pressure on satellite and space sector equities.
