AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) shares jumped more than 4% in premarket trading Monday, even as a prominent satellite analyst cast serious doubt on the company’s competitive future.
Satellite analyst Tim Farrar argued on X that AST SpaceMobile could arrive “too little, too late” in the direct-to-device race against Starlink’s expanding satellite network.
Farrar said AST’s low-band constellation lacks the spectrum and capacity to offer a service comparable to Starlink Mobile V2, SpaceX’s next-generation direct-to-device offering.
He also said he does not believe SpaceX views AST as a serious competitor, instead pointing to Amazon as the more significant satellite rival in the market.
ASTS stock had fallen 5% on Friday to close at $56.20, with shares also on pace to end the month at their worst levels since January 2024.
Farrar projected $48 billion in total Starlink connectivity revenue and 46 million consumer subscribers by 2030, well below forecasts from Deutsche Bank, RBC, and Morgan Stanley.
He said wholesale average revenue per user for Starlink Mobile V2 could amount to “tens of cents rather than multiple dollars,” with fewer than 10% of partner subscribers actively using the service.
Farrar argued that D2D “complements terrestrial wireless coverage rather than replacing it,” describing the technology as largely a fallback for remote areas and emergencies.
He also expects mobile network operators to “drive a hard bargain on price by playing off the satellite D2D providers against one another,” further pressuring AST’s economics.
Farrar estimates Starlink Mobile V2 could offer wholesale capacity for less than $2 per gigabyte, though he questioned whether that would justify SpaceX’s roughly $20 billion spectrum investment.
Morningstar reached a similar conclusion last month, calling Starlink a “niche solution, not a telecom disruptor,” and estimating its realistic global market at around $129 billion.
Morningstar sees Starlink’s opportunity “not in replacing traditional telecom networks, but in dominating the underserved edges of the connectivity market,” with $28 billion in rural broadband opportunity.
On the operational side, AST raised $1 billion through convertible notes earlier this month, with proceeds potentially supporting launch-related “partnerships and/or acquisitions” to vertically integrate the business.
Farrar interpreted the filing as a signal of an imminent acquisition, saying, “The ASTS press release makes it pretty clear they now intend to buy/invest in a launch provider,” calling it a “fascinating pivot.”
He questioned whether potential targets such as United Launch Alliance, Firefly Aerospace, Relativity Space, or Stoke Space could provide the near-term launch capacity AST actually needs.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ASTS was rated “bearish” amid “low” message volume, reflecting a cautious mood among everyday investors.
One user wrote, “$ASTS I can’t remember the last time I was this ‘least’ excited for the market to open. All the best.”
A more optimistic user countered, “$ASTS That’s it, the market sell off (totally manufactured) is officially over! It’s go time, load up, here come the God candles!”
ASTS stock has declined 6% over the past year, leaving investors to weigh the company’s ambitious growth plans against mounting competitive and structural challenges.
