AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) shares have fallen more than 20% over just five trading sessions, hitting a one-year low not seen since September 2025.
The Midland, Texas-based company is now down approximately 67% from its all-time high reached on May 28, as multiple headwinds converge on the stock simultaneously.
SpaceX’s latest push to acquire low-band spectrum for its Starlink Mobile service has emerged as a significant new threat to AST SpaceMobile’s business model.
According to a filing with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission, SpaceX aims to “supercharge competition in the mobile market by ensuring all Americans have access to high-speed mobile broadband anywhere they go.”
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk described the spectrum acquisition as the “last critical piece of the spectrum puzzle needed for SpaceX to provide complete phone coverage in America.”
The announcement rattled the broader telecom sector, with Verizon (NYSE: VZ) dropping more than 10% on October 9 and AT&T (NYSE: T) losing around 11% in the same session.
AST SpaceMobile saw its own stock fall more than 10% on the news, compounding losses already accumulating from a string of separate company-specific setbacks.
Investment bank Piper Sandler downgraded ASTS to Neutral on October 13 and slashed its price target by roughly 45%, citing lower confidence in the company’s launch schedule and potential limits on SpaceX launches.
Piper Sandler cut its deployment forecast to just 18 operational satellites by end of 2026, down sharply from a prior estimate of 45, pushing expected commercial service launch into the latter half of 2027.
A newly filed class-action securities lawsuit against AST SpaceMobile alleges that the company misled investors about its liquidity sufficiency, competitive durability, debt levels, and dilution risks, covering investors who purchased shares from March 4, 2025, through July 15, 2026.
The company has also posted six consecutive quarterly earnings misses, most recently reporting a $0.77 loss per share on $31.52 million in revenue, falling short of analyst expectations.
With satellite unit costs running between $21 million and $23 million each and negative operating cash flows, ASTS faces sustained risk of shareholder dilution to fund its network buildout.
The company is pursuing a goal of expanding its low Earth orbit constellation of BlueBird satellites to 45 by early 2027, though analysts now question whether that timeline is achievable.
Wall Street’s broader outlook on the stock remains split, with the analyst consensus sitting at Hold and an average price target implying more than 80% upside from current levels.
Deutsche Bank upgraded ASTS from Hold to Buy with a $93 price target, arguing the market has overreacted to competitive risks posed by SpaceX’s expanding wireless ambitions.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank pointed to potential carrier partnerships, notably with T-Mobile, alongside defense sector progress and government funding as meaningful revenue pillars supporting a recovery thesis.
Piper Sandler’s $54 price target reflects a more cautious view, signaling that growing competition and delayed satellite deployment could continue to weigh heavily on shares.
