AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is heading toward its worst weekly performance in over a month after B. Riley issued a significant downgrade on Friday, citing growing competitive threats.
B. Riley downgraded ASTS to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ and cut its price target to $65 from $85, a reduction of more than 20% from its previous target.
Despite the sharp cut, the revised target still implies more than 14% upside from current trading levels, suggesting the analyst sees limited but real remaining value in the stock.
ASTS shares were down 0.4% at the time of the downgrade and were tracking their fifth consecutive session in negative territory, extending a painful stretch for investors.
The firm said it is increasingly concerned about how much consumers will ultimately be willing to pay for satellite connectivity as cheaper alternatives emerge in the market.
B. Riley pointed specifically to multi-tenant satellite networks as a rising threat, highlighting that these systems allow several mobile operators to share satellites and ground infrastructure at potentially lower cost.
The firm highlighted Viasat (VSAT) as a concrete example, noting that Viasat is working with Space42 to build Equatys, a shared satellite-connectivity platform designed for telecom operators.
AST plans to sell its service through mobile-network partners rather than directly to consumers, with carriers expected to set pricing through options like day passes, monthly add-ons, and emergency-use plans.
The company had previously targeted roughly 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit during 2026, but shifted that goal to early 2027, citing launch availability as the reason for the delay.
AST estimates it needs between 45 and 60 satellites for continuous coverage across key markets, and approximately 90 satellites for its broader targeted network footprint.
BlueBirds 14, 15, and 16 were recently shipped from AST’s Texas facility to Cape Canaveral, though the company has not yet announced a specific launch date.
AST’s contracted revenue backlog stood at approximately $1.3 billion at the end of the second quarter, including U.S. government contracts, and the company’s 2026 revenue outlook ranges between $150 million and $200 million.
ASTS carries a 12-month consensus price target of $79.61, with five of 14 covering analysts rating it ‘Buy,’ seven ‘Hold,’ and two ‘Sell,’ according to Koyfin data.
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits remained in ‘bullish’ territory over the past 24 hours amid ‘high’ message volumes, with at least one bullish user expecting the stock to surge to $100 by the end of the month.
ASTS shares have slumped more than 31% so far this year, significantly underperforming rivals RKLB, LUNR, and SPCE during the same period.
