SpaceX’s Starship rocket successfully reached orbit for the first time, marking a milestone that analysts say could dramatically reshape the company’s long-term valuation.
Citi initiated coverage of SpaceX (SPCX) with a Buy rating and a $200 price target, implying roughly 25% upside by year-end for the private space company.
The bank also outlined a longer-term path to $900 or more per share, contingent on Starship deployment at scale across its business verticals.
That $900 level would value SpaceX at around $12 trillion, more than twice the current market capitalization of Nvidia, compared with SpaceX’s present valuation of around $2 trillion.
SpaceX shares rose approximately 2.5% on Tuesday after Starship successfully reached orbit and deployed its payload during the rocket’s 14th flight.
The mission marked the first time Starship deployed revenue-generating cargo, with the vehicle successfully releasing 26 Starlink V3 satellites during the flight.
It was also the first meaningful payload mission for Starship, representing a significant commercial step forward for the company’s ambitious launch program.
Citi’s bullish outlook rests on what the bank views as “unrivaled launch capabilities for the foreseeable future,” positioning SpaceX to capture trillion-dollar opportunities in both telecom and artificial intelligence.
The bank sees SpaceX building a dominant global connectivity business alongside an enterprise and orbital AI business that could generate enormous revenues through the next decade.
Citi projects 2030 revenue of around $485 billion and EBITDA of around $360 billion, both above Wall Street consensus estimates of around $410 billion and $310 billion respectively.
The bank further projects approximately $1 trillion in revenue for 2031, a figure that underscores just how transformational Starship’s success at scale could be for the business.
Other major banks covering SpaceX also hold bullish positions, with RBC setting a price target of $225 and UBS rating the stock a Buy with a $210 target.
UBS expects at least one more Starship flight this year and believes SpaceX will attempt to catch the vehicle’s booster during its next mission.
Deutsche Bank struck a more cautious tone, noting that booster engine issues and an early shutdown of a Raptor vacuum engine during the 14th flight must be investigated before drawing firm conclusions.
Despite the engine anomaly during the latest flight, SpaceX still managed to place Starship into orbit for the first time, a feat that had eluded the program through its previous 13 attempts.
Citi flagged the long-term $900-plus scenario as dependent on key execution risks, including regulatory exposure across each of SpaceX’s major business verticals.
Successful deployment of Starship at scale remains the central variable that will determine whether SpaceX’s valuation trajectory follows the most optimistic projections laid out by Citi analysts.
