D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) is posting shrinking revenue in 2026, yet one analyst argues the company’s top line will triple before the decade ends.
The quantum computing specialist reported revenue of $5.9 million for the first half of 2026, a steep 67% decline compared to the same period last year.
Despite that contraction, the bull case for D-Wave does not rest on recent growth trends but instead on what customers have already committed to spend.
D-Wave’s full-year 2025 revenue reached $24.6 million, a 179% jump from $8.8 million in 2024, though that surge was heavily driven by a single landmark transaction.
The company’s first-ever sale of an annealing quantum computing system contributed $12.6 million to first-quarter 2025 revenue alone, creating a difficult comparison for 2026.
Revenue fell 81% year over year in the first quarter of 2026, while second-quarter revenue came in essentially flat at $3.1 million.
The revenue line is shrinking, but D-Wave’s order book tells a very different story about underlying demand for its technology.
First-half bookings of $35.5 million surpassed the company’s total revenue for all of 2025, a striking divergence between booked demand and recognized sales.
The math behind a tripling prediction is straightforward: three times 2025’s $24.6 million base implies annual revenue reaching roughly $74 million by 2029, the last full year before 2030.
Achieving that target would require approximately 44% annual revenue growth over three years, a demanding pace for a company whose sales are currently declining.
Still, a single quantum system sale has the demonstrated ability to move a full year’s revenue by a significant amount, as the 2025 results clearly showed.
QBTS shares are trading near $18 at the time of writing, less than half the stock’s 52-week peak of $46.75, reflecting investor uncertainty about near-term execution.
Even if revenue does triple, the stock would still be trading at roughly 90 times sales, a valuation that raises serious questions about current pricing relative to fundamentals.
A tripled D-Wave would still represent a $74 million revenue company carrying a multibillion-dollar market valuation, leaving the risk-reward calculation complicated for new investors.
The business appears to be moving in the right direction operationally, but at current prices the stock may be difficult to justify for value-conscious investors.
