A new poll reveals Democrats have made sweeping gains among Latino voters in competitive House districts, a shift that could reshape the battle for congressional control.
The Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision poll, shared with Axios, shows Democrats holding a 58 percent advantage on the generic congressional ballot across 17 competitive House districts.
Republicans are winning the support of 35 percent of Latino voters in those same districts, leaving Democrats with a commanding 23-point margin heading into the midterms.
That 23-point edge is double the 11-point advantage Kamala Harris held over Trump in the same sample’s self-reported 2024 presidential vote.
In Texas, Latino voters across three competitive House races swung from a self-reported 44-44 split in 2024 to a 56-36 advantage for Democrats going into the midterms.
Florida showed equally striking movement, with Latino voters in two swing districts shifting from Trump +1 in 2024 to Democrat +13 in the current poll.
In California, 57 percent of Latino voters said they will back Democrats compared to 33 percent who say they will support the GOP.
Pollsters found that 11 percent of Latinos who said they voted for Trump in 2024 now back Democratic candidates, a potentially decisive bloc in close races.
Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision found that 63 percent of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the presidency, with only 36 percent saying they support his job performance.
His handling of high prices and the cost of living faces 65 percent disapproval from Latino voters, while 62 percent say they do not approve of his handling of immigration enforcement and deportations.
Trump’s aggressive deportation agenda has stoked fear in many Latino neighborhoods, accelerating a deterioration in support that Republicans had hoped to avoid after 2024.
Among Spanish-language media consumers, Democrats lead the 2026 generic ballot by 14 points, compared to a 1-point Trump edge in that group’s self-reported 2024 vote.
Coming out of the 2024 election, Republicans hoped Trump’s near-parity with Democrats among Latinos would harden into a lasting political realignment favoring the GOP.
Instead, this poll and surveys earlier this year suggest the nation’s fastest-growing swing electorate is moving left, as anger at high prices and immigration policies give Democrats an opening.
With control of Congress at stake and Trump’s approval ratings hitting new lows, the Republican breakthrough among Latino voters from 2024 appears to have significantly eroded.
