Deutsche Bank Research analysts Michael Hsueh and Bryant Xu maintain that gold has been in an explosive price phase since August 2024, with no signs of that momentum ending.
The analysts describe recent price movement as a muted correction rather than a fundamental shift in the broader bullish trend driving the precious metal higher.
Their research note states: “A statistical measure indicates that the current episode of explosive gold price behaviour began from August 2024 and is ongoing.”
The bank adds that this framework provides “a useful frame of reference for today’s gold market,” giving investors a structured way to interpret current price dynamics.
Deutsche Bank identifies the current episode as only one of five explosive phases appearing in gold price data stretching back to 1975, after filtering out noise and aggregating temporally linked observations.
The rarity of such episodes underscores the significance of the current run, suggesting the gold market is experiencing something historically uncommon rather than routine price appreciation.
Analysts Hsueh and Xu do flag some downside signals, pointing to long-term gold-to-commodity ratios as a source of concern for bulls watching for potential reversals.
Despite those cautionary signals, regression analysis cited by the bank points to limited drawdowns, suggesting the floor beneath current gold prices remains relatively firm.
A fair value model referenced in Deutsche Bank’s research points to gold approaching USD $4,700 per ounce by year-end, sitting slightly above the bank’s official Q4 2026 forecast of $4,600 per ounce.
The gap between the fair value model and the official forecast suggests Deutsche Bank is taking a conservative stance even as its own analytical tools point to a potentially higher ceiling for the metal.
Gold has attracted significant institutional attention throughout this explosive phase, with central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, and inflation concerns all cited as structural drivers supporting elevated prices.
Deutsche Bank’s decision to hold its $4,600 forecast steady signals confidence in the medium-term outlook, even as shorter-term volatility and corrective pressure test investor conviction in the gold market.
