AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) closed at $50.97 on October 9, marking a 62% decline from its May 28 peak as investor sentiment soured sharply.
Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft upgraded ASTS from Hold to Buy on October 12, maintaining his $93 price target representing 82% upside from that close.
Kraft had previously turned cautious on the stock earlier in the year, citing a launchpad explosion and stretched valuations as reasons for concern.
He explained his earlier exit directly: “We had downgraded the stock in May after the New Glenn launchpad explosion that introduced a material delay in ASTS’ launch plans, combined with valuation concerns.”
The selling pressure intensified when SpaceX agreed on October 9 to acquire a nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio from Grain Management, driving ASTS to a new 52-week low.
B. Riley had already cut AST to Hold just days earlier on October 2, slashing its price target from $85 to $65 ahead of that broader market selloff.
Kraft now calls the pullback an “opportune time” to turn bullish, arguing that AST’s spectrum holdings alone account for nearly all of the company’s current enterprise value.
That framing effectively means investors are paying close to nothing for the satellite network itself, a proposition Kraft believes the market has significantly mispriced.
Berenberg, which held its Buy rating on October 9, added that the SpaceX spectrum deal actually makes AST a more attractive partner for the wireless carriers SpaceX is now competing against.
Analysts project revenue will surge from $70.9 million in 2025 to $1.73 billion in 2028, a trajectory that underpins much of the bullish case for the stock.
However, loss estimates have moved in the wrong direction over the past 90 days, with the 2026 consensus loss widening from $1.51 per share to $2.28.
The 2027 loss estimate also deteriorated during that period, expanding from $0.65 per share to $1.19, raising questions about the path to profitability.
At the October 9 close, ASTS traded at 43.6x forward sales, below its five-year average of 60.3x, which suggests the stock is historically cheap on that metric.
Deutsche Bank’s $93 target implies roughly 79.6x those same forward sales, a premium well above the five-year average though far below the 205.4x peak reached in October 2025.
Cash burn remains a significant concern, with Wall Street projecting $3.2 billion in cumulative outflows before 2029 against over $3.7 billion of pro forma cash reported as of June 30.
AST also guided to $350 million to $425 million in third-quarter capital expenditure, underscoring the heavy investment demands of building out its satellite constellation.
Before Kraft’s upgrade, only 4 of 13 analysts rated ASTS a Buy or Outperform, while 7 carried a Hold rating, reflecting broad caution across the Street.
The consensus price target of $78 had risen over the past year even as the stock itself declined roughly 41%, highlighting a widening gap between analyst expectations and market reality.
Two near-term catalysts could test the bull case quickly, including an FCC meeting on October 29 whose agenda Clear Street described as “mixed” for AST, and the planned launch of BlueBirds 14, 15, and 16.
The Deutsche Bank upgrade is a credible call supported by spectrum valuation logic and an improving revenue outlook, but the widening losses and premium multiple required make it a stretch at current levels.
