Republican pollster Frank Luntz is sounding the alarm over what he calls a “very dangerous strategy” being pursued by President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections.
Appearing on CNN This Morning, Luntz argued that Trump is attempting to put himself on the ballot in November to energize his base of supporters heading into a difficult election cycle.
Trump has repeatedly urged his supporters to treat the midterms as if he personally is running, hoping to replicate the massive turnout numbers that carried him through his presidential campaigns in 2016 and 2024.
Luntz told host Audie Cornish that the core problem is an “energy challenge” for GOP voters, noting the well-established historical pattern that favors the party out of power during midterm elections.
“I’m looking at a turnout differential that advantages the Democrats by a couple of points, which means that there are more people who oppose Donald Trump who are planning to vote than those who support him,” Luntz told Cornish.
The warning follows a CNN poll placing Trump’s approval rating at just 33 percent, his lowest recorded level across either of his terms in the network’s polling history.
That same survey found Democrats holding an 8-point advantage over Republicans among voters nationally, a significant gap that Luntz says underscores the danger of Trump’s current approach.
“When he is on the ballot, his people come out, they participate,” Luntz said, pointing to the contrast between Trump’s strong on-year performances in 2016 and 2024 and Republican struggles in the 2018 and 2022 midterms.
Luntz singled out Texas, Iowa, Alaska, and Ohio as states where Trump-aligned turnout will prove decisive, while flagging Hispanic voters, male union voters, and voters under 30 as critical coalition groups Republicans must hold.
In Texas specifically, Luntz noted that GOP Senate challenger Ken Paxton is failing to excite voters after Senator John Cornyn was pushed out, creating a vulnerability in a state that should otherwise be safely Republican territory.
Trump’s team is reportedly planning an aggressive campaign schedule for both Trump and Vice President JD Vance in October, targeting battleground and deep-red states alike, with advisers believing increased turnout is their best path to holding ground.
“If the Trump voters don’t participate, the Democrats will achieve an upset,” Luntz said, acknowledging he understands the reasoning behind the strategy even while warning of its risks.
Luntz cautioned that the broader political environment has shifted considerably since Trump’s 2024 victory, stating bluntly, “Make no mistakes, we’re not in the same election.”
Voters are currently frustrated with the affordability crisis, Trump’s war with Iran, and what Luntz described as dissatisfaction with “the style and the ugliness” of the current political moment.
Luntz predicted real difficulties ahead for Republican candidates but left the door open for a surprise outcome, saying that if Trump successfully mobilizes his supporters, “we can have an upset.”
“But right now, there are an awful lot of people who can’t wait to vote, and they want to send a message to this administration and the people of Washington, D.C.,” he warned.
