Gold prices surged past $4,800 on Wednesday, marking a fresh record as investors sought refuge amid White House tariff threats and renewed concerns over a potential global trade war.
The rally follows a record-breaking 2025, with momentum carrying into 2026 as analysts highlight geopolitical uncertainty, falling real interest rates, and central bank efforts to diversify away from the dollar.
Analysts Forecast Further Gains
Market forecasts are increasingly optimistic, with analysts surveyed by the London Bullion Market Association predicting gold could exceed $5,000 this year.
The projections are underpinned by expectations of lower U.S. real interest rates, continued Federal Reserve easing, and ongoing central bank diversification from the dollar.
Julia Du, a senior commodities strategist at ICBC Standard Bank, projects prices could reach as high as $7,150.
“Gold remains the headline story after a record-breaking 2025,” the LBMA said in its forecast survey.
Goldman Sachs has also reaffirmed its bullish stance, describing gold as its highest-conviction trade.
“Gold remains our highest conviction long or base case, the price by the end of this year is $4,900,” said Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs.
He noted that central bank purchases drove early gains in 2023 and 2024, while private-sector demand accelerated the rally in 2025.
Private Sector and ETF Demand
“Private investors are starting to diversify into gold through different channels,” Struyven said, pointing to ETF inflows as evidence of growing private-sector interest.
Goldman Sachs highlighted that demand largely comes from private wealth firms, asset managers, hedge funds, and pension investors.
For many gold bulls, geopolitical tensions remain a defining factor.
Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP, emphasized that the current cycle differs from a speculative peak.
“Last year was historic, sort of a once in a hundred year event across precious metals, where silver basically doubled,” Shiels said.
“Gold was up 60%, so we won’t see a repeat of those gains, but $5,400 is a solid 30% up year on year. This is a secular trade. This isn’t a commodity blowoff top.”
Geopolitical Risks Fuel Demand
Shiels stressed that tensions are not abating.
U.S. moves in Venezuela and efforts to assert control over Greenland have further fueled investors’ flight to gold.
“You’re entering a world where … there is a strong demand to secure critical metals, critical commodities in this decade,” Shiels added.
