Republicans are increasingly bullish about their chances in New Hampshire, where a high-profile Senate race is reshaping the political landscape heading into November.
Former Sen. John E. Sununu is running against Rep. Chris Pappas for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat who has held the position for years.
Cook Political Report shifted the contest in the GOP’s favor last week, signaling that Republicans have real momentum in a state that has traditionally leaned Democratic in federal elections.
The MAGA Inc.-aligned No Going Back PAC has already reserved over $10 million in advertising for the New Hampshire Senate race, according to The New York Times, reflecting serious Republican investment in the contest.
Sununu brings a powerful family legacy to the race, with both his brother and father having served as governor of New Hampshire, giving him deep name recognition across the Granite State.
New Hampshire went for former Vice President Kamala Harris by 3 points in 2024, and Republicans acknowledge the state is not immune to the broader political headwinds facing the party under President Trump.
“If we continue to see high costs and, you know, a war that is very unpopular, it’s going to be a tough environment for Republicans,” longtime Republican strategist Jim Merrill said.
Merrill added, “I’d say given all of that, John Sununu is the very best person at this moment to maybe do something that no one expects.”
Democrats, for their part, are not treating the race as a safe hold, with one longtime New Hampshire Democratic operative warning that taking pressure off the accelerator could cost the party dearly.
“It’s almost like wishful thinking nationally to want to be able to take New Hampshire off the map because you know it has gone ultimately for Democrats in federal races,” the operative said.
The operative continued, noting, “But you see how close it’s been, and if you take your foot off the gas pedal, you could easily lose these races.”
On the campaign trail, Pappas has focused on his congressional record and local roots, while Sununu has emphasized bipartisan appeal and his family’s long history of public service in the state.
Republicans have sought to tie Pappas to the national Democratic Party, pointing to his record on the Transportation Committee and his now-husband’s previous lobbying work for Amazon as policy counsel from 2015 to 2019.
The Pappas campaign told WMUR in 2020 that it had consulted with the House Ethics Committee and was told no disclosure of the relationship was required.
Sununu’s campaign has forcefully denied any association between the former senator or his father and Jeffrey Epstein, calling attacks on the issue “disgusting” and stating that Sununu “believes Epstein was a despicable human being.”
Pappas campaign manager Rachel Petri fired back, saying, “John Sununu’s record of supporting Donald Trump’s disastrous agenda that’s driving up costs and hurting Granite Staters stands in stark contrast to Chris Pappas’s record of fighting for New Hampshire.”
A Republican victory in New Hampshire would represent a significant boost for the party as it works to maintain and expand its Senate majority heading into the fall.
