One year of market data has delivered a harsh verdict on nearly all of the original quantum computing stock ratings, with just one call holding up under scrutiny.
The original article, published one year ago, rated D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) a Sell, IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) a Buy, and Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) a Hold for ETF investors and a Sell for everyone else.
The D-Wave Sell call proved correct, with shares falling 36% from $25.67 to $16.43 over the period measured from the first trading session after publication through the latest close.
The IonQ Buy call failed outright, with shares dropping 38.96% from $71.94 to $43.91, meaning the recommendation cost readers money by any standard measure.
Rigetti suffered the steepest decline of the three, falling 44.52%, making the Sell-for-most rating broadly correct even as the ETF-only Hold portion of that call still lost ground.
One element of the original D-Wave thesis overstated the downside risk, as a Forbes warning about a potential drop to $1 never materialized, with the stock now backed by $546.2 million in cash and investments and first-half bookings of $35.5 million versus $2.9 million a year earlier.
With all three stocks trading well below their levels from a year ago, fresh ratings carry more weight now than relitigating old ones, and the new assessments reflect a meaningfully changed landscape.
IonQ earns a Buy at $43.91, supported by second-quarter revenue of $80.05 million, up 286.8% year over year and ahead of the $66.42 million analyst consensus, with full-year guidance raised to between $280 million and $290 million and a backlog that grew to $485 million from $122 million a year earlier.
Bank of America also rates IonQ a Buy, though that represents one data point rather than a guarantee, and key risks include adjusted EBITDA of negative $120.3 million and the integration of the $1.8 billion SkyWater deal.
The markers to watch for IonQ are full-year revenue landing inside guidance and 256-qubit commissioning completing in the first half of 2027, with a miss on either trigger likely to result in a rating downgrade.
D-Wave remains a Sell at $16.43, with second-quarter revenue of $3.08 million coming in flat and missing consensus by 23.63%, while operating expenses nearly doubled to $54.98 million against a market cap near $6.2 billion that prices in growth the income statement has not yet demonstrated.
Management expects fourth-quarter revenue “up significantly” with two systems shipping, meaning actual delivery of those systems would be enough to move D-Wave to a Hold rating.
Rigetti moves to a straight Sell at $15.74, where quarterly revenue of $5.14 million supports a market cap near $5.3 billion, a valuation that is difficult to justify given CEO Subodh Kulkarni’s own admission: “We acknowledge openly that we are not quite close to quantum advantage.”
A Commerce Department letter of intent for up to $100 million includes an equity stake, meaning dilution is a real concern for current shareholders considering adding to positions.
The path to a Hold for Rigetti runs through lifting 108-qubit two-qubit fidelity to roughly 99.5% this year combined with finalizing the Commerce Department deal, with both conditions required rather than either one alone.
All three names remain speculative, cash-burning, and unprofitable, and any position in these stocks should represent only a small slice of a portfolio built to absorb significant losses, particularly for investors at or near retirement.
