The projected 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment of 3.6% would deliver the largest benefit increase recipients have seen in four years.
The forecast comes from The Senior Citizens League, which based its projection on July inflation data showing consumer prices rose 3.4% over the prior year.
If the 3.6% projection holds, the average retiree’s monthly check would climb from $1,937.53 to $2,007.28, a gain of roughly $69.75.
That would represent a meaningful step up from the 2026 COLA of 2.8%, which added approximately $56 to the average monthly benefit.
AARP projects a slightly more conservative 3.5% adjustment for 2027, which would translate to an average increase of about $73 per month for retired workers.
Current estimates from various analysts place the 2027 COLA in a range between 3.2% and 3.6%, all of which would surpass this year’s 2.8% adjustment.
Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, offers a separate estimate, projecting the 2027 COLA may come in at 3.4%.
Beyond retired workers, other beneficiaries would also see meaningful gains under current projections, including surviving spouses and disability recipients.
The average monthly benefit for a surviving spouse, currently $1,933, would rise by about $68, while Social Security Disability Insurance benefits for the average disabled worker would increase by roughly $57 per month.
The COLA is calculated by averaging inflation data across the third quarter — July, August, and September — using the Consumer Price Index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, known as the CPI-W.
Because only July data has been released so far, the August and September CPI-W readings will be critical in determining whether current projections hold or shift before the final number is announced.
The Social Security Administration is scheduled to officially announce the 2027 COLA on October 14, timed to coincide with the release of the September Consumer Price Index report.
