SpaceX is preparing to go public at a valuation that would instantly rank it among the largest companies in the United States by market capitalization.
The company plans to sell 555.6 million Class A shares at a fixed price of $135 each, placing its valuation at roughly $1.77 trillion upon arrival.
That figure would make SpaceX the seventh-largest U.S. company, surpassing both Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) and Tesla (TSLA) on day one of trading.
Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX could generate $3.4 trillion in revenue by 2040, with total revenue expected to approach $330 billion by 2030 alone.
Morgan Stanley also forecasts that SpaceX’s artificial intelligence operations will generate approximately $190 billion in revenue by 2030, reflecting enormous growth expectations from analysts.
Evercore ISI research analysts expect SpaceX’s AI division to deliver $755 billion in sales by 2031, up from $3.2 billion last year, with total company revenue topping $1 trillion that year.
Wall Street analysts are telling prospective IPO buyers they are modeling for roughly 100 times revenue growth in SpaceX’s AI division by the end of the decade to justify the targeted $1.8 trillion valuation.
Not everyone is convinced the numbers hold up under scrutiny, however, with skeptics raising serious questions about the company’s current profitability and competitive positioning.
Morningstar analysts believe SpaceX is “significantly overvalued” ahead of its blockbuster IPO, saying xAI poses a “material threat of value destruction” to the company, with its “economic moat indeterminate.”
Morningstar’s discounted cash flow valuation of SpaceX sits at $780 billion, roughly 48% below its private market valuation of $1.5 trillion, a significant gap for investors to weigh.
SpaceX’s own S-1 filing acknowledged that the company has “a history of net losses and may not achieve profitability in the future,” a notable disclosure given the scale of its IPO ambitions.
SpaceX’s space business lost $619 million on an operating basis while its AI unit lost $2.5 billion, meaning connectivity remains the only profitable segment of the entire operation.
A $1.75 trillion valuation would place SpaceX at 67 times sales, three times the equivalent multiple of Nvidia (NVDA) based on its most recent financial year and latest share price.
Elon Musk, the company’s founder, CEO, CTO, and chairman, holds roughly 82.4% of voting power following the offering, giving him unchallenged control over the board and corporate direction.
That concentration of power qualifies SpaceX as a “controlled company” under Nasdaq rules, exempting it from certain governance requirements that apply to most publicly listed firms.
Nasdaq itself controversially rewrote its rules last month to allow the largest IPOs to enter the prestigious Nasdaq 100 index after just 15 trading days, rather than waiting for the index’s regular reconstitution schedule.
