SpaceX shares are approaching their initial public offering price of $135 after a dramatic retreat from record highs, raising questions about the company’s lofty valuation.
The aerospace giant went public at $135 a share roughly a month ago in a record-breaking IPO that valued the company at more than $1.7 trillion and raised $85.7 billion from investors.
That made SpaceX’s debut by far the largest IPO of all time, cementing 2026 as what Renaissance Capital has called the “Year of the Mega IPO.”
Shares surged as high as $225.64 on June 16 as SpaceX debuted on the U.S. options market, but the stock has since shed enormous ground in a matter of weeks.
On Monday, SpaceX shares hit an intraday low of $136.78, a decline of 39.4% from their intraday peak, before closing at $139.14, down 4.2% on the day.
The company has lost more than $800 billion in market value from its $2.67 trillion peak in less than a month, leaving SpaceX as the seventh-largest U.S. company by market capitalization.
“SpaceX sitting on its IPO price is far from a crisis,” Cerity Partners’ Michael Ashley Schulman told MarketWatch, calling it “a signal that the narrative premium embedded in the offering may have nowhere to go in the short term.”
Schulman added that “we have seen this movie before with other high-profile listings” that left little room for the stock to rise after the initial excitement faded.
Critics have questioned whether SpaceX’s business fundamentals justify its valuation, pointing to the company’s $18.6 billion in revenue in 2025 set against a net loss of roughly $4.9 billion.
Wall Street analysts remain divided, with Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu initiating coverage last week with a $255-a-share price target, describing SpaceX as the “apex of civilizational ambition.”
Raymond James has taken an even more bullish stance, with its best-case scenario placing SpaceX at $1,000 a share over the longer term.
“As time passes, investors will need to value the stock based on its multitude of businesses instead of the initial IPO hype,” said Mike Dickson, head of research at Horizon Investments.
Investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC warned on Monday that SpaceX shares could drop below the $135 IPO price in coming days as lockup restrictions ease.
Black specifically noted that shares will likely fall below “its $135 IPO price as 20% of locked shares become free in early-August,” adding another layer of pressure on the stock.
Insiders are also permitted to sell up to 7% of their holdings on the 70th, 90th, 105th, 120th, and 135th days following the company’s public debut, with another 28% eligible after SpaceX’s third-quarter earnings call.
The stock’s recent slide comes just one week after SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq-100, which prompted passive investors tracking the tech-heavy index to purchase shares.
A low float, meaning a limited supply of existing shares on the market, has amplified that volatility significantly since the company’s debut.
A potential near-term catalyst could arrive Thursday, when SpaceX is expected to conduct its 13th Starship rocket test, an event closely watched by investors and analysts alike.
The Federal Aviation Administration cleared SpaceX for that test on Monday and also closed a mishap investigation into a prior launch that ended in a fiery explosion, saying SpaceX identified four corrective actions.
“Starship is critical to SpaceX’s Starlink and AI roadmap, both of which require payload mass and volume that Falcon 9 cannot efficiently support,” Deutsche Bank’s Yu wrote in a research note.
