SpaceX shares pointed to $136.20 in Monday premarket trading, recovering above the company’s $135 IPO price for the first time in nearly a month.
The stock had priced at $135 on June 12, opened at $150 on debut day, and briefly surged to an intraday high of $225.64 on June 16 before a sharp and prolonged selloff took hold.
Shares fell as low as $108.27 during that decline, leaving investors and analysts watching closely for signs of a sustained recovery.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed Friday, August 7 at $133.11, capping a weekly gain of 22.8% from the $108.37 close recorded on July 31.
That Friday session alone delivered a 15.83% surge, marking the stock’s largest single-day advance since its historic Nasdaq debut in June.
A major test arrived last week when SpaceX’s first stock lockup period expired, turning more than 911 million shares into liquid stock for early investors.
That unlocked block represented more than the 639 million shares sold during the IPO itself, prompting some analysts to warn of potential near-term volatility and significant insider selling pressure.
However, the feared wave of selling largely failed to materialize, with roughly 497 million shares changing hands across Thursday and Friday, representing about 54.6% of the unlocked block.
Despite that added supply hitting the market, the stock still gained 6% on Thursday, easing concerns about the lockup’s broader impact on price stability.
SpaceX’s first public earnings report added complexity to the week, with shares falling 14% on Wednesday after the company disclosed higher-than-expected spending on its artificial intelligence business.
Revenue came in better than expected overall, providing bulls with enough positive data to push back against the midweek selloff and drive Friday’s outsized gains.
Deutsche Bank analysts said that SpaceX’s target to reach $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by the end of the year is “likely very achievable,” adding credibility to the company’s long-term financial projections.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas called SpaceX a “potential generational compounder” and said the stock could nearly triple by mid-2027, tying that view to SpaceX’s AI, launch, and satellite-connectivity assets.
Citi analysts said Sunday that they revised their 2026 and 2027 forecasts higher “as a result of rolling forward sources of the 2Q26 beat,” reiterating the company as a buy.
On August 6, SpaceX and Tesla jointly announced their $16.8 billion “Terafab” semiconductor fabrication complex will be built in Grimes County, Texas, with total potential investment that could reach $119 billion across multiple phases.
The Terafab plant is designed to produce 1 terawatt of compute per year and is expected to employ at least 3,000 people, adding an industrial and political dimension to SpaceX’s already expansive growth story.
Ahead of earnings and the share unlocks, notional short interest in SpaceX surpassed that of Tesla, one of Wall Street’s most heavily shorted stocks, reflecting deep skepticism among a segment of the market.
More than 250 million SpaceX shares were sold short, representing about 16% of shares available for trading, according to data from S3 Partners LLC, with that figure having topped 36% on Wednesday before the 911.5 million shares were unlocked.
The combination of short covering, positive analyst commentary, and lockup relief without mass insider selling appears to have provided the momentum needed to push the stock back above its IPO price.
Whether SpaceX can sustain that recovery and build toward levels closer to its June highs will depend heavily on execution against its ambitious revenue targets and continued investor confidence in its AI and space infrastructure ambitions.
