SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) has erased its post-IPO gains almost entirely, with shares sliding back toward the $135 offering price from a peak of $225.64.
The stock priced at $135 on June 12, 2026, surged to an intraday high before reversing sharply, and now trades near $139.14 after a 4.24% single-day decline.
SPCX has fallen 13.55% over the past month and 13.27% in the past week alone, putting shares roughly 38% below their intraday peak.
The 24/7 Wall St. price target for SpaceX stands at $259.42, implying approximately 86% upside over the next 12 months, with the recommendation rated a BUY at moderate confidence.
A widely circulated Reddit thread titled “SPCX first major unlock is bigger than the entire IPO float” has focused retail attention on the significant dilution risk ahead.
Japan’s successful rocket landing has also rattled investors who believed meaningful launch competition was still years away from challenging SpaceX’s dominance.
SpaceX reported $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025, and its $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation left the public float notably thin relative to total shares outstanding.
Starlink continues scaling across 164 countries from a constellation of roughly 9,600 satellites, providing the core revenue engine that underpins bullish long-term forecasts.
The xAI acquisition in early 2026 added a frontier artificial intelligence model to SpaceX’s platform, positioning SPCX alongside major hyperscalers in the AI infrastructure conversation.
Jim Cramer noted the combined entity “could be seeking a valuation of over $2 trillion,” while also arguing it is “very difficult to justify giving SpaceX a $2 trillion valuation” for a money-losing company.
Forward earnings per share of -$0.70 confirms SpaceX is still spending more than it earns, with heavy capital expenditures directed toward Starship, xAI compute, and satellite manufacturing.
The 24/7 Wall St. bull case points to $282.19 over 12 months, driven by Starlink subscriber growth, Starship launch cadence, and satellite-to-mobile coverage expansion across roughly 30 countries.
Analyst consensus carries a price target of $242.22, implying 74% upside from current levels and lending independent support to the constructive long-term thesis.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) offers the clearest US-listed comparison, posting Q1 2026 revenue of $200.35 million, up 63.5% year over year, with backlog reaching $2.20 billion and a market cap near $44 billion.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) carries a $21 billion market cap against 2026 revenue guidance of just $150 million to $200 million, making SpaceX’s valuation appear far more grounded by comparison.
The critical line in the sand for opportunistic buyers is the $135 IPO price, where institutional investors originally built their positions during the largest book of 2026.
A break below $130 on heavy volume would signal the lockup unlock is overwhelming demand and would materially change the near-term risk profile for the stock.
The 24/7 Wall St. multi-year price target model projects SPCX reaching $359 by 2028 and $708 by 2030, assuming continued Starlink scaling, Starship execution, and xAI monetization.
