Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering one week after the United States and Iran signed an interim peace deal to reopen the critical waterway.
Between June 15 and 21, 125 transits were recorded through the strait, marking the highest weekly total since the war began in late February.
Tankers have been rushing to move stored Gulf crude before the 60-day truce window expires, driving the surge in activity through the narrow passage.
On June 24, AXS Marine recorded 62 commercial vessel crossings, the highest single-day count since the war started, though still only 53% of traffic from the same day last year.
The recovery hit a significant setback when the Ever Lovely, a Singapore-flagged Evergreen container ship, was struck on its starboard side by a projectile off the Omani coast on Thursday.
A U.S. official said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps carried out the strike, marking the first attack on a cargo vessel since the ceasefire took effect.
The IRGC had declared just hours before the attack that all ships must use only its northern route and comply fully with Iranian routing instructions.
Shipowners are now navigating two competing authorities with no agreed rules, with a northern corridor under Iranian control and a southern passage through Omani waters, while the standard pre-war commercial lane remains closed due to mines.
Aristidis Alafouzos, CEO of Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp, a crude oil shipping company headquartered in Greece, said he does not expect Thursday’s attack to “significantly change” the trend of transits through the waterway.
“We’ve seen a large increase, especially on the crude oil passages, and I think this is set to continue and maybe this one-off event isn’t enough to really disrupt the recent events of the large exports of Kuwaiti and Emirati crude oil from the Gulf,” Alafouzos told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.
“The one big missing factor is the Saudis. For now, we haven’t seen them export almost anything from inside the Arabian Gulf and everything is coming from Yanbu in the Red Sea,” Alafouzos added.
Bruce Tan, a Singapore-based electronics manufacturer who held back deliveries to Middle East clients for four months, said he has begun moving goods through the corridor again, but only in small batches.
Tan is also routing some orders through alternative corridors as a hedge against another potential closure of the strategically vital waterway.
Tim Huxley, CEO of Singapore-based Mandarin Shipping, which manages 50 vessels globally and has kept all of them out of the strait, highlighted the dangerous uncertainty still gripping the passage.
“We don’t know how much of the straits is mined — it can be very dangerous going through that,” Huxley said, pointing to the lack of clear navigational rules from either side.
“Until there is a more concrete set of guidelines on safe navigation, people are going to be very reticent to go through,” Huxley said.
Han Shen Lin, China country director of The Asia Group, offered a sharper assessment of the financial stakes now confronting corporate decision-makers considering transit.
“Boardrooms aren’t asking about cargo safety — they’re asking if it is insurable. War-risk premiums have shot up from 0.05% to over 0.7% of hull value per transit. That’s not a risk premium, that’s a serious business model stress test,” Han said.
“One vessel seizure doesn’t just cost you the cargo — it costs you the client relationship, the insurance renewal, and your board’s confidence. Speed is worthless without survivability,” Han said.
The Strait of Hormuz typically handles around 20% of the world’s oil traffic, making its continued instability a pressing concern for global energy markets and supply chains alike.
