Democrat Aftyn Behn and Republican Matt Van Epps are in a tight race in Tennessee’s special election to replace former Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.), according to a recent poll.
An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released Wednesday shows Van Epps, former commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services, at 48 percent and Behn, a state representative, at 46 percent among likely voters and those who have already cast ballots.
The results fall within the poll’s 3.9-point margin of error, indicating the two candidates are essentially tied.
Approximately 5 percent of respondents remain undecided.
When including those undecideds who indicate a leaning toward a candidate, Van Epps reaches 49 percent while Behn stands at 47 percent.
Context of the Race
Van Epps and Behn are competing for the seat in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District after Green resigned earlier this year to pursue a private sector opportunity.
The special election is scheduled for Dec. 2.
The district stretches from Tennessee’s northern border with Kentucky down to its southern border with Alabama, including portions of north and west Nashville.
Despite being traditionally considered a Republican stronghold, Democrats have invested significant resources in the race.
High-profile Democratic surrogates have been deployed to the district in hopes of a strong performance following notable Democratic wins elsewhere.
Key Issues for Voters
According to the poll, the economy is the top priority for voters, with 38 percent rating it as their main concern.
Housing affordability and health care were each cited by 15 percent of respondents, while threats to democracy were highlighted by 13 percent.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, emphasized the importance of voter turnout in determining the outcome.
“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home,” he said.
Kimball noted clear differences between early voters and those voting on Election Day.
“Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%,” he explained.
The poll also revealed a generational divide in support.
“Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, 64% of whom support her, while Van Epps’ vote increases with age, to 61% of those over 70,” Kimball said.
Poll Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted between Nov. 22 and Nov. 24.
A total of 600 likely voters and respondents who had already cast ballots were surveyed.
The survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
