Space stocks are posting strong gains Thursday, with SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) leading the charge as its first and largest post-IPO share lockup tranche expires without triggering the anticipated selloff.
SPCX shares climbed 3% to $111.14, defying widespread fears that a massive unlock of previously restricted shares would flood the market and pressure the stock lower.
Today’s expiration marks the first of nine staggered lockup tranches, unlocking 911.5 million shares, which is 143% more than the 638.9 million shares floated during June’s IPO.
The unlock more than doubles SpaceX’s public float to 11.8% of shares outstanding, up from just 4.9% prior to the expiration event.
Wall Street analysts remain divided on SPCX stock, according to Yahoo Finance’s Pras Subramanian, with perspectives ranging from bullish long-term conviction to near-term technical caution.
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas frames the unlock as a buying opportunity and calls SpaceX a potential generational compounder, while Morningstar’s Nicolas Owens expects most eligible shares to be sold given low cost basis but says much of the dilution may already be priced in.
Bank of America’s Ron Epstein calls it a near-term technical drag rather than a verdict on the company, and JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth cites significant pre-positioning ahead of the expiration.
Fundamental support underpins the bullish case, as SpaceX reported Q2 2026 revenue of $7.81 billion, beating estimates by 14.6%, with AI segment revenue surging 247% year over year to $2.56 billion.
Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million during the quarter, reinforcing the growth narrative that bulls have used to justify the company’s lofty valuation since its June debut.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) shares jumped 5% to $72 Thursday, driven by accelerated network integration testing across the UK, Ireland, Romania, France, the Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, and Ukraine.
Announced carrier partners for AST’s European rollout include Vodafone (NASDAQ: VOD), Orange, Telefonica, Deutsche Telekom, and Vodafone Ukraine, expanding the company’s commercial footprint significantly.
AST’s BlueBird satellite constellation now supports nearly 60 mobile network operator partners representing over 3 billion subscribers worldwide, making it one of the sector’s most ambitious buildouts.
ASTS shares are up 42% over the past year as investor enthusiasm builds around an accelerating European commercial ramp that could meaningfully expand the company’s revenue base.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) shares rose 5% to $78.57 after the company completed its 92nd Electron mission, named “The Grain Goddess Provides,” marking the 8th successful launch for the iQPS Earth-imaging QPS-SAR constellation.
Rocket Lab has achieved 100% mission success for the iQPS customer, and another 10 dedicated Electron launches are booked by iQPS before 2030, providing strong revenue visibility.
RKLB posted Q1 2026 revenue of $200.4 million, up 63.5% year over year, with a record backlog of $2.2 billion signaling continued strong demand for its launch services.
Rocket Lab was also selected for the Department of War’s Space Based Interceptor program under Golden Dome for America in partnership with Raytheon, adding a significant defense contract to its portfolio.
The Neutron medium-lift vehicle remains on track for its debut later in 2026, which analysts expect to open a new and larger addressable market for the company.
Broader sector momentum lifted the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ: UFO) 1% to $47.19, while Virgin Galactic (NYSE: SPCE) rose 2% to $2.94, Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) jumped 8% to $15.09, and Planet Labs (NYSE: PL) climbed 4% to $23.29.
Polymarket traders assign a 97.1% probability that SpaceX stock finishes the week above $90 and a 76% probability above $100, reflecting strong near-term directional conviction from prediction market participants.
Rocket Lab’s Q2 2026 earnings report is due August 10, offering the next major scheduled catalyst for the sector and a fresh test of investor appetite for space stocks.
