AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) shares edged 0.3% higher overnight heading into Tuesday, lifted by a high-profile government endorsement of its international partnerships.
The stock had closed marginally lower at $58.44 on Monday, following a 2% gain in the prior session, leaving it down 20% on a year-to-date basis.
A joint statement released by the State Department welcomed cooperation between Japan’s Rakuten Group and AST SpaceMobile “for the development and deployment of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite infrastructure.”
The statement followed a Monday meeting in Kyoto between White House science and technology chief Michael Kratsios and Japan’s minister Toshiharu Furukawa, reviewing progress under the U.S.-Japan Technology Prosperity Deal.
Both countries committed to expanding digital connectivity cooperation across the Indo-Pacific, including government financing, assistance where available, and joint research on Beyond 5G and 6G technologies.
On the commercial front, Telus and AST SpaceMobile announced they completed their first integration test between the Canadian carrier’s wireless network and AST’s space-based network.
Telus expects to deliver broadband data, voice calls, and text messaging directly between satellites and eligible smartphones within the next year, without requiring special equipment.
Despite the positive diplomatic and commercial developments, William Blair reiterated its “Market Perform” rating and slashed its 2027 revenue estimate to $459 million from $752 million, a reduction of roughly 39%, citing slower BlueBird II launches and shipment delays.
Blair assumes fewer than 20 satellites will be in orbit by year-end, falling well short of AST’s revised target of approximately 45 by early 2027, a timeline the company has already pushed back once.
President Scott Wisniewski noted on the August earnings call that 25 satellites would provide about half-day U.S. coverage, placing Blair’s year-end assumption below that critical threshold.
AST confirmed at the end of last month that BlueBirds 14, 15, and 16 had departed its Texas facility for Cape Canaveral, posting “Another convoy is on the move. Next stop: orbit,” though no launch date was announced.
Investor speculation about a late-October Falcon 9 launch slot remains unconfirmed, keeping retail traders closely watching for any scheduling updates from the company.
CEO Abel Avellan said following the August launch of BlueBirds 11-13 that BlueBird 11 was fully deployed and all 13 spacecraft were performing well, helping ease earlier concerns about array deployment.
AST said production was advancing through BlueBird 50, with more than 20 spacecraft structures in integration and a target to ramp toward six fully assembled satellites per month.
Wisniewski noted on the August call that 10 launches were booked with two providers, targeting roughly one every month or two, adding regarding Blue Origin’s New Glenn: “They’re targeting this year. We’re not betting on that necessarily.”
Adding further pressure to the outlook, B. Riley downgraded ASTS to “Neutral” from “Buy” on Friday, cutting its price target to $65 from $85, citing a balanced risk/reward outlook, stronger competitive alternatives, and rising constellation costs.
B. Riley also questioned how much consumers would pay for added space-based connectivity as lower-cost competitors serving multiple operators, including Viasat (VSAT), continue to emerge.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ASTS jumped to “bullish” from “neutral” levels a week ago, accompanied by a 473% surge in 24-hour message volumes.
One investor called AST “Continuously winning,” while another said, “I’m switching my family from Rogers to Telus because of ASTS,” reflecting the enthusiasm surrounding the Telus integration test announcement.
That optimism was tempered by a bearish response to the William Blair note, with one user calling the firm “too kind” and dismissing AST as “a hobby, not a business.”
