IBM made a bold quantum computing promise a year ago, and the results delivered a complicated verdict that rewards careful reading of what actually happened.
On September 29, 2025, a widely circulated article dubbed IBM the next Nvidia, projecting 1,000% returns driven by the company’s decades-long quantum computing investments and financial durability.
Twelve months later, IBM shares fell from $272.72 to $220.67, a decline of 19.09%, leaving investors with real losses and a headline that the data never supported.
Yet the relative call proved correct, as IBM declined less than every pure-play quantum rival tracked in the original analysis over that identical window.
IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) dropped 30.63%, D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) fell 33.7%, and Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) suffered the steepest loss at 46.21% over the same period.
The original article recommended a larger weight in IBM alongside small positions in IonQ and Rigetti, a construction that limited losses compared to any startup-heavy quantum portfolio.
IBM’s second quarter was rough, with EPS of $2.93 missing the $2.97 consensus and revenue rising just 1.1% to $17.16 billion amid a securities fraud inquiry into pipeline disclosures.
Chief Executive Arvind Krishna addressed the shortfall directly, saying: “With the portfolio we have and the opportunities ahead, it comes down to execution. That is where we fell short in the second quarter.”
Free cash flow still rose 70.36% to $2.54 billion, and IBM extended its dividend increase streak to 31 consecutive years with a $1.69 quarterly payout that supports ongoing quantum investment.
Krishna remained aggressive on the technology’s timeline, stating: “Quantum computing is no longer decades away. It is upon us and we are investing aggressively,” with more than $10 billion committed over five years.
IBM’s subsidiary Anderon secured a $1 billion CHIPS award on September 16, reinforcing the self-funding thesis that separated the company from its cash-burning competitors.
IonQ grew revenue 286.83% to $80.05 million, which its CEO called “the strongest quarter in our company’s history,” yet the company still posted an operating loss of $337.2 million.
D-Wave reported just $3.08 million in revenue, missing the $4.03 million consensus, while its cash position dropped to $546.2 million from $819.3 million.
Rigetti booked $5.14 million in revenue, and management acknowledged plainly: “We acknowledge openly that we are not quite close to quantum advantage.”
Momentum can shift quickly in this sector, as IonQ gained 12.1% over the past month following a new quantum computing deal reported by Barron’s.
IBM expects free cash flow to grow approximately $1 billion in 2026, and management noted that a third of deferred deals closed in just the first three weeks of the third quarter.
If IBM hits that cash target while advancing its quantum roadmap toward the Starling milestone in 2029, the self-funding thesis grows stronger and more defensible over the next review period.
A miss on those targets would weaken the core argument and force a fresh reassessment of how IBM’s quantum ambitions stack up against a rapidly evolving competitive landscape.
The clearest lesson from this one-year scorecard is that a correct relative judgment can be entirely obscured by a headline the underlying data never had the capacity to support.
