RTX Corporation is releasing its first-quarter 2026 results before the market opens today, with Wall Street expecting adjusted EPS of $1.51 and revenue of approximately $21.4 billion.
The company carries a $268 billion total backlog into the report, split between $161 billion in commercial aerospace and $107 billion in defence, providing one of the most visible revenue pipelines in the industrial sector.
The ongoing US-Iran conflict has accelerated defence procurement conversations across allied budgets globally, a geopolitical tailwind that sits alongside RTX’s already robust commercial aerospace recovery.
RTX has beaten EPS estimates in each of its last four quarters with an average surprise of around 12%, but the market will be focused on whether execution is keeping pace with the elevated expectations baked into a premium 40x P/E valuation.
The GTF Advantage engine received EASA certification and is expected to enter service later this year, making any update on production timelines or airline adoption a meaningful data point on the call.
Maintenance, repair and overhaul output rose 39% in Q4 2025 and aircraft-on-ground numbers have fallen more than 20% from peak levels, improving the trajectory that had weighed on Pratt and Whitney’s margins for several quarters.
Cash compensation outflows related to GTF powder metal defect remediation are projected at $700 million for 2026, down from $1 billion last year, a visible margin tailwind the market has been anticipating.
Management’s framing of the tariff headwind — previously flagged at approximately $850 million in operating profit impact — will attract close attention given its size relative to the guidance range.
The stock was up 7.14% year-to-date heading into today’s report but softened slightly in recent days, suggesting some traders trimmed positions ahead of a print carrying elevated execution expectations.
Analyst price targets cluster around $215, representing substantial upside from current levels and providing a clear benchmark for today’s guidance tone to either validate or undermine.
