SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) has shed 36% of its value over the past month, leaving investors who bought near the post-IPO peak nursing significant losses.
The selloff has prompted many investors to ask whether rotating into rival space names might offer a more stable alternative going forward.
The short answer, according to available data, is not necessarily, as the broader space sector has declined sharply in tandem.
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) is down 36% over the same one-month window, matching SpaceX’s losses almost exactly and offering little relief for those seeking shelter.
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) has dropped 34% over the same period, while Planet Labs (NYSE: PL) has fallen 38% and Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) has lost 43%.
Virgin Galactic (NYSE: SPCE) fared comparatively better with a 13% decline, though it remains a highly speculative stock with no visible path to profitability on a trailing 12-month basis.
The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ: UFO), which provides diversified exposure to space-related companies including SpaceX and Rocket Lab, has itself declined 14% over the past month.
These companies operate in a capital-intensive, pre-profitability phase where investor sentiment and funding conditions drive price action far more than near-term earnings results.
None of the major space stocks currently trade at positive trailing 12-month earnings, meaning traditional valuation anchors like price-to-earnings ratios simply do not apply to this sector.
SpaceX, Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, and Virgin Galactic all carry losses on a trailing 12-month basis, leaving investors entirely dependent on future growth narratives.
Switching from SPCX into RKLB or ASTS does not meaningfully improve the margin of safety, as all three companies face similar execution risks including launch reliability, customer concentration, and cash burn.
One potential wildcard for SpaceX shareholders is the possibility of a merger with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), which some analysts believe could unlock significant value for investors.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has left the door open to combining the two companies, and prediction markets have assigned odds ranging from 33% to 74% for a deal before May 2027.
Analysts at Oppenheimer have called a combination plausible but do not expect it in the near term, while analyst Dan Ives sees an 80% to 90% probability of a deal in 2027 after SpaceX completes its IPO process.
Investors should not treat a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger as a reliable hedge against near-term volatility, as the terms and timing of any deal remain highly uncertain.
The Procure Space ETF offers basket exposure to the sector but carries concentrated risks similar to the individual names, as its own 14% monthly decline clearly demonstrates.
Investors considering staying in the space sector may want to keep position sizes modest and watch for any of these companies beginning to show consistent profitability or positive free cash flow.
Until meaningful profitability emerges, the space sector remains highly speculative, and even long-term believers in the industry’s potential should approach current valuations with caution.
