Berenberg has launched coverage of the U.S. and European space sector, initiating four stocks at Buy and one at Hold as the industry surges past key economic milestones.
Analyst Michael Filatov said falling launch costs have driven the space economy past $500 billion in 2025, with the market on track to exceed $1 trillion by 2030.
Filatov said he favors “vertically integrated launch and differentiated/sovereign constellation capability that cannot easily be replicated” as the primary investment thesis across the sector.
The new coverage joins Berenberg’s existing Buy rating on OHB SE (OHB.DE), extending the firm’s footprint across both sides of the Atlantic in the fast-growing space industry.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) was initiated with a Buy rating and an $83 price target, with Filatov calling the company “the only end-to-end public pure-play in space.”
He cited Rocket Lab’s dominance in dedicated small launch, its Iridium acquisition, and its Space Systems segment, which he said offers “the clearest upside to consensus revenue in the near term.”
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) received the highest price target among the group at $92, with Filatov noting that AST is “the only company to have demonstrated true cellular broadband from space to unmodified smartphones.”
That distinction is backed by more than 60 mobile network operator partnerships covering roughly 3 billion subscribers, giving AST a commanding position in the direct-to-device connectivity race.
Planet Labs (PL) was initiated with a $25 price target, with Filatov describing it as “the only company imaging the entire Earth daily,” supported by revenue growth accelerating from roughly 10% to 42% over five quarters.
Planet Labs also reported a backlog up 72% year-over-year to approximately $906 million, reinforcing the bull case for sustained demand in the Earth observation segment.
HawkEye 360 received a $24 target, with Filatov arguing the company offers “unique exposure to a capability moving from niche to core in allied defence,” pointing to its radio-frequency signals intelligence constellation.
HawkEye posted 33% organic growth in the second quarter, underscoring accelerating demand for signals intelligence capabilities among allied defense customers.
Avio SpA (AVIO.MI) was the lone Hold in the group, receiving a price target of €33, with near-term earnings constrained by capital spending tied to its new Virginia plant.
Filatov noted that “investors are being asked to wait for a 2029-plus payoff” as the Italian propulsion company works through its current investment cycle before meaningful returns materialize.
On the broader macro backdrop, Filatov cited defence and sovereignty spending as the sector’s most de-risked demand driver, with global defence space spending reaching $74 billion in 2025.
The U.S. Space Force’s fiscal 2027 budget request more than doubled from the prior year, adding further institutional weight to the bullish outlook on defense-oriented space companies.
SpaceX delivered 80% of all mass to orbit year-to-date, with one satellite executive reportedly describing launch capacity as “an existential crisis for our industry,” highlighting structural constraints facing the sector.
Longer-term, Filatov sees value migrating downstream toward connectivity and data applications, where AST SpaceMobile, Planet Labs, and HawkEye 360 are expected to benefit from rising demand for sovereign capabilities.
