Oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz are recovering unevenly and remain well short of pre-war levels, according to a new briefing from Kpler. The firm has raised its price outlook as Saudi Arabia ramps up exports from both its coasts.
Kpler Insight lifted its Q4 2026 Dated Brent forecast to around $96 a barrel from $90 on 2 October. Physical Dated traded near $120 to $127 a barrel in late September, more than $20 above the forward curve.
Hormuz clearance about 33% below baseline
Kpler’s Confirmed Total Hormuz Clearance measure ranged from 7,153 to 17,213 thousand barrels a day (kbd) between 30 September and 3 October. Its 7-day average of 11,549 kbd sits about 33% below the pre-war baseline of 17,132 kbd.
The measure is wider than strait transits alone. On 3 October, Total Hormuz Clearance was 11,024 kbd, after 17,213 kbd the day before. That day, confirmed strait transits were 8,620 kbd and Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship net exports added 2,403 kbd, and Fujairah and Oman terminal loadings reached 7,453 kbd. Strait transits alone averaged 9,017 kbd over seven days against the same 17,132 kbd baseline, a gap of roughly 47% by our own calculation rather than a figure Kpler states.
Daily readings swing widely because crossings are dated by transit, so Kpler says the 7-day average is the better guide. The latest days are preliminary, and Kpler says such figures have typically settled 1.5 to 2 times higher once later confirmations land.
Adding Gulf of Oman terminals and the Red Sea lifts the regional 7-day average to 21,664 kbd, about 7% below its baseline. The Red Sea component is volatile. Volumes were 0 kbd on 3 October, but the 7-day average of 5,153 kbd is above the 2,803 kbd baseline, after readings of 11,843 kbd on 30 September and 3,039 kbd on 1 October. Kpler says the series is lumpy because berth loadings are dated by loading date.
The Strait of Hormuz Tanker Crossings dashboard recorded 7 crossings on 3 October, comprising 6 exits and 1 entry. The 7-day average is 13 crossings a day, against a pre-war level of 50.
Saudi Arabia exports from both coasts
Saudi Arabia is loading crude from both coasts again. Kpler says the East-West Pipeline, known as Petroline, has recovered faster than it expected after an attack on 10 September damaged pumping infrastructure and temporarily halted loadings at Yanbu.
Pipeline flows are back near 5.5 million barrels a day (mbd), leaving roughly 4 mbd available for export at Yanbu. Aramco has also lifted exports from Ras Tanura and through ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Weekly Saudi loadings reached their highest level since April 2020.
Kpler’s Crude View expects Yanbu loadings to return to pre-attack levels by November. It also notes that Bab el-Mandeb risk is pushing Yanbu cargoes onto costly Cape routings, and that frequent Houthi attacks on Saudi west coast facilities add to uncertainty.
The recovery is narrowing price gaps. Dubai M1 to M3 backwardation has eased from more than $26 a barrel in mid-September to about $10. Kpler expects the Brent to Dubai spread to narrow further as Yanbu ramps up, though full normalisation looks unlikely in the near term.
Europe absorbed the shortfall in the interim, as several refiners received no October-loading Saudi term crude. Johan Sverdrup reached a record premium of $24 a barrel to Dated in mid-September and has held near $20 since.
Iran: no crude loadings in September
Iran recorded no crude loadings in September, the first time since Kpler began tracking in 2013, according to Kpler Insight on 1 October. The last recorded loading was the Suezmax SARAK at Kharg Island on 25 August.
Onshore Iranian crude stocks have held between 66 million barrels (mb) and 70 mb since mid-September. Floating Iranian crude outside the blockade zone fell to 45 mb from 100 mb in late July. Kpler expects Iranian output to fall to 2.06 mbd across September and October.
The Crude View says Iran is running out of exportable barrels under the US blockade, which raises its incentive to strike regional infrastructure. Kpler Insight reported on 2 October that Iran has accelerated attacks on vessels, with four confirmed incidents over the past week, including tankers on shuttle runs and on trades inside the Mideast Gulf. It says this limits how far rising traffic can lower regional risk premia, and it puts clean product transits through the strait at about 39% of pre-war levels.
G7 stock release resets diesel
The G7 agreed on 2 October to a coordinated release of 100 mb through the IEA over four months, including a frontloaded diesel release within the first 20 days. Kpler said the announcement reset gasoil markets, with ICE Gasoil down 5% and Heating Oil down 3%.
Kpler rates diesel cracks slightly bearish but does not read the release as a sign a Hormuz solution is near. Diesel outflows from the Middle East are less than half of year-ago levels, and the Russian gasoil export ban runs to the end of October. The release also takes the threat of a US diesel export ban off the table for now.
Products are recovering more slowly than crude because of refinery damage in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, according to Kpler Insight on 1 October. In the previous week’s Cross Commodity Weekly, published 30 September, Singapore fuel oil was the only gainer in the products complex, up 1.5%. Kpler rates Singapore HSFO slightly bullish, with bunker premiums holding around $45 a tonne as blending components stay scarce.
Freight and shipping
Rising Gulf exports are pushing Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship operations closer to capacity limits, Kpler Insight noted on 2 October, raising tanker requirements and keeping freight rates elevated. Mideast Gulf to China VLCC rates eased to $33.4 a barrel after 12 weeks of gains, according to Tankers Weekly on 2 October.
Two-way price risks
Chinese refiners continue to buy heavily, with September seaborne crude imports up 377 kbd month on month, according to The Crude View. The report notes that trend-following funds reached a rare 100% long position on prompt ICE Brent in September. That skew limits further upside, and downside moves could be sharp if a bearish catalyst appears. Possible catalysts include a return of Russian diesel exports, a restart of the 400 kbd Jizan refinery and the start of Uaru output in Guyana.
Separately from the $96 Q4 forecast revision, The Crude View sets out scenarios. Its base case is slower, uneven normalisation of Hormuz flows without a diplomatic breakthrough, with Dated near $79 a barrel by Q3 2027. Its high case is $105 to $110 through Q4. Its low case assumes a quick return to June-deal terms, with prices moving toward $70 by December.
A note on the data
Kpler stresses that every figure is a confirmed floor and can be revised upward at any horizon. Reported figures are older than 14 days, provisional figures are 8 to 14 days old, and preliminary figures cover the last 7 days. Flow data runs to 3 October 2026.
Figures are oil only, covering Crude/Co, CPP, DPP and Chem/Bio as defined by Kpler, and exclude NGLs and LNG. Iranian-origin transits are excluded from the strait figures only. Gulf of Oman and Red Sea volumes with no confirmed load terminal capture ship-to-ship cargo and carry no origin attribution, so the exclusion does not apply to them.
