As the third quarter nears its close, quantum computing stocks are caught between accelerating technological progress and persistent investor skepticism over commercialization timelines.
IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) have each announced significant developments since their second-quarter results, yet shares remain volatile and under pressure.
The Federal Reserve raised its federal funds target range to 3.75%-4% on Sept. 16, with median year-end 2026 projections set at 4.1%, above the 3.8% projection from June.
August CPI rose 3.4% year over year, with core CPI up 2.4%, keeping financing costs and discount rates elevated for companies whose revenues remain heavily future-weighted.
Despite tough macro conditions, the quarter produced meaningful government support, with the Commerce Department finalizing up to $100 million in CHIPS R&D awards each for Rigetti and D-Wave in September.
The Department of Energy also launched its Quantum Genesis Q Competition, with up to $215 million in planned funding to accelerate fault-tolerant quantum systems alongside a separate $45 million testbed initiative.
Quantinuum completed its traditional IPO in the second quarter, raising $1.7 billion and entering Q3 with $2.1 billion in cash, while its second-quarter revenues surged 279% year over year to $8 million.
IonQ completed its SkyWater acquisition on July 31, updated its 2026 revenue outlook to $450-$460 million, and announced a Superion 256 system installation planned for NVIDIA’s Accelerated Quantum Research Center in 2027.
IonQ’s Superion 256 will connect to NVIDIA’s GB200 NVL72 infrastructure, marking a significant strategic partnership, though the stock has declined 17.3% during the third-quarter months so far.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IonQ’s third-quarter 2026 bottom line is pegged at a loss of 22 cents per share, representing a 93.9% improvement year over year despite the stock’s Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) rating.
D-Wave enters the quarter-end with first-half bookings reaching $35.5 million, up 1,120% year over year, with production applications accounting for 37.3% of first-half QCaaS revenues.
D-Wave also published a Nature-backed advance involving its superconducting dual-rail architecture and quantum error correction, strengthening its longer-term technology positioning considerably.
QBTS shares have declined 28.5% during the third-quarter months, though the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q3 2026 projects a loss of 9 cents per share, a 78.1% improvement year over year.
Rigetti’s Q3 narrative has centered on government-backed investment, with $100 million in CHIPS R&D funding finalized in September and a new Systems Delivery organization established in August to scale on-premises deployments.
With $541.3 million in cash and investments as of June 30, Rigetti has the runway to advance its roadmap, though RGTI shares have declined 14.4% during the third-quarter months so far.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti’s third-quarter 2026 bottom line is a loss of 5 cents per share, indicating a 66.7% wider loss year over year, with the stock carrying a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) designation.
Across all three names, the central question heading into Q3 earnings is whether government funding, strategic partnerships, and booking momentum can begin translating into measurable revenue growth.
